Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 25, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Every quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the Financial Accounts of the U.S., previously referred to as the Flow of Funds report. The report is huge and provides a balance sheet and income statement of sorts for the economy. The data offer interesting insights into the financial situation of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 24, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are moving steadily higher in an orderly fashion. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.6 mb compared to the 3.5 mb draw expected. The SPR fell 1.7 mb, meaning without the addition from the reserve, commercial inventories would have declined 9.3 mb.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Colonial Pipeline Ransomware Attack: Part II (June 21, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we provided an overview of the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, followed by reflections on organized crime and why ransomware has become so attractive to criminals. We also described Darkside, the firm involved in the attack. This week, we will conclude with a discussion of why this attack… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 18, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As the global economy begins to recover from the coronavirus, we’ve been warning that the apparent surge in price inflation may not be all that it seems. Inflation is usually calculated as the percentage change over one year. Since many consumer prices stagnated or fell at the start… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 17, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are moving steadily higher in an orderly fashion. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.4 mb compared to the 2.0 mb draw expected. The SPR fell 0.9 mb, meaning without the addition from the reserve, commercial inventories would have declined 8.2 mb.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Colonial Pipeline Ransomware Attack: Part I (June 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On Thursday, May 6, 2021, hackers attacked the Colonial Pipeline, capturing data by infiltrating the company’s business software. In response, the company closed its 5,500-mile pipeline to assess the damage and protect critical infrastructure. Eventually, the company paid the ransom and service was restored. Although a criminal event usually doesn’t… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 11, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In May, respondents to the University of Michigan’s monthly Consumer Sentiment Survey said they expect consumer prices to rise at an average rate of 4.6% per year over the next half-decade—the highest level of inflation expectations in 12 years. In this report, we discuss why inflation expectations are… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have moved above the $60 to $68 per barrel trading range and are testing $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 5.2 mb compared to the 3.3 mb draw expected. The SPR fell 1.3 mb, meaning without the addition from… Read More »