Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and Bond Yields (November 12, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As market strategists, we’re always on the lookout for reliable indicators of future financial market performance wherever we can find them. Some indicators are strongly correlated by themselves, with performance yardsticks like stock prices, dividend yields, or bond yields. Other indicators are indexes composed of multiple data points,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning; it’s Veterans Day. A sincere thanks to all who served. It’s also Single’s Day, but the Chinese celebration is lower key this year under conditions of shared prosperity. Risk markets are higher this morning, with gold continuing to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After pulling back from $85 per barrel, the market made another assault on the price level, but that level is proving to give strong resistance. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.0 mb compared to a 2.6 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.1… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Today’s Comment opens with key U.S. developments that could have an impact on the financial markets today, including news of a new government crackdown on crime at big companies. We next cover a range of international news, including the appointment… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a range of U.S. news, including new details on a corporate tax hike in the Democrats’ proposed health, education, and climate bill. The U.S. news also includes the latest opening on the Federal Reserve’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Fumio Kishida (November 8, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Whenever a big, rich country gets a new leader, there could be potential investment implications, and Japan is no exception to this rule. When former Prime Minister Suga announced last summer that he wouldn’t seek reelection as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the first step in Japan’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! It’s lighter in the morning but will be darker earlier. Risk markets are modestly higher this morning. Tesla (TSLA, USD, 1222.09) is making news (and might be lowering the major indices) after Elon Musk had… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! A strong jobs report has pushed U.S. equity futures higher this morning. Today’s Comment begins with U.S. economic and policy news followed by several China-related stories. International news is next, and we conclude with our pandemic coverage. Economics… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Is Monetary Policy Affected by Financial Markets? (November 5, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the 1980s, economic graduate students were taught that the “wealth effect” was minor at best. It is a behavioral theory that measures the impact of rising wealth on consumption. In theory, when a household’s assets increase in excess of its liabilities, there should be a tendency for… Read More »