Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (January 9, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In mid-2022, we published a report showing that as the United States begins to step back from its traditional role as the global hegemon, the world is fracturing into relatively separate geopolitical and economic blocs. Our study looked at almost 200 countries around the world and aimed to objectively predict… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last BWGR of 2022; the next report will be published on January 9, 2023.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the 20th Party Congress (November 7, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (The Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report will not be published in two weeks due to Thanksgiving. The report will return on December 12.) The Communist Party of China’s (CPC) 20th Party Congress has come to a close. By all accounts, General Secretary Xi has tightened his grip on power. Not only has… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Defining Deglobalization (October 24, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Words are important. They are a key tool to how we communicate, but they also can narrow meanings and lead to misunderstandings. Often, the term “deglobalization” has led pundits to suggest that this isn’t really happening by deploying something of a “straw man” argument. The writer will suggest that trade… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe’s New, Right-Wing Leaders (October 10, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Late summer can often be a quiet time for global affairs, economics, and the financial markets. Especially in Europe, people are off on their long summer holidays, making it difficult to find a “quorum” for political events and business meetings while sapping liquidity in the investment markets. This year,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Updates on Russia-Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan (September 26, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF September has been full of dramatic developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and in the broader geopolitics of the region. Indeed, now that we’re into autumn and Russia and Ukraine are both trying to improve their positions ahead of winter, it may be a good time… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War at Six Months: Some Reflections (September 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On February 24, Russian forces entered Ukraine. Despite warnings from U.S. intelligence about an invasion, the general consensus was that Moscow was merely threatening to act. Thus, when Russia invaded, Europe was mostly caught by surprise. Much of what followed was also unexpected. As we reach the six-month mark of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (August 29, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (August 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Soon after founding Confluence Investment Management, we formulated a position that the U.S. was in the early stages of ending its hegemonic role. We postulated that this event would have a profound effect on the domestic and global economy, and, consequently, financial markets. In traveling around the country discussing this… Read More »