Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part II (April 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we introduced Walter Scheidel’s four horsemen and examined the impact of COVID-19 using his framework.[1]  This week, we introduce the equality/ efficiency cycle and discuss the first issue that would be affected by the reversal of this cycle. COVID-19 and the Equality/Efficiency Cycle We postulate that economies pass through… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part I (April 20, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady Although we do cover current events in the Weekly Geopolitical Report, we also try to anticipate changes that may be a consequence of current situations.  The COVID-19 crisis is just such an occasion.  We regularly update the current path of the virus in our Daily Comment, but we will consider the longer-term… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Could the Coronavirus Pandemic Break Up the EU? – Part II (April 6, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Note: Due to the Easter holiday, our next report will be published on April 20.) In Part I of this report we examined the history of the European Union (EU), how it works, and the political, economic, and social fissures that had already rendered it unstable when the COVID-19 pandemic took… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Could the Coronavirus Pandemic Break Up the EU? – Part I (March 30, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In times of crisis, the future is a luxury.  Or, at least, thinking about the future can seem like a luxury, especially if you’re reeling from the death of a loved one, the loss of a job, the devastation of a retirement portfolio, or just the boredom and isolation of a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Optimization (March 23, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady In our discussions of COVID-19, we have noted that part of the reason the virus has been so disruptive is because the world has adopted a stance that optimization is an unalloyed positive.  When I was in graduate school, I participated in a seminar with several professional private sector economists.  A question… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing.  That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Pandemics (March 9, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady Since January, the world has been dealing with the COVID-19 virus, a new coronavirus that has been spreading around the world.  Because this situation is still evolving, it is too early to determine the overall impact of this specific virus.  We update our views on COVID-19 regularly in our Daily Comment report.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part III (March 2, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends.  The report discussed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, with a potentially huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part II (February 24, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends.  The report showed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, potentially having a huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »

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