Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I (September 30, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since early July, the financial press has been reporting on a continued trade spat between Japan and South Korea.  The reports have focused on a series of tit-for-tat trade restrictions the countries have imposed on each other, which are ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II (September 23, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem and examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy.  We also discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed. This week, using the background established in Part I,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part I (September 16, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar.[1]  The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of groundbreaking new legislation that was introduced in the Senate. In Part I of this report, we… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Kashmir Sweater (September 9, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown a penchant for using surprise to launch new policies.  In 2016, for example, his government announced a sudden replacement of large-denomination bank notes to fight crime and curtail the shadow economy.  Modi’s latest shocker came early last month,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Boris Johnson (August 26, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Due to the Labor Day holiday, our next report will be published on September 9.)  The great forest fires that consumed swaths of the West in recent years have finally revealed the danger from a century of excessive fire suppression.  Humanity’s natural drive to control the environment has left forests overgrown… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part II (August 19, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In Part I, we began our analysis with a discussion of Mundell’s Impossible Trinity.  We also covered the gold standard model and Bretton Woods model.  This week, we will examine the Treasury/dollar standard and introduce what could be called Bretton Woods II.  Finally, we will conclude with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I (August 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In July 1944, 44 allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH to develop the structure for the economic and financial systems for the postwar world.  The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates.  Exchange rates were pegged to the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey Lashing Out (August 5, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here at Confluence, we write a lot about the rise and fall of hegemonic states – those great nations that develop enough power and influence to dominate the global economy, or at least some region of it.  These superpowers use their extraordinary military might and other levers to impose order on… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part II (July 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Economic Triangle: Part II  Last week, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand.  From there, we examined the weakness of supply and demand at the macro level and discussed an alternative model, the Economic… Read More »

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