Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe’s New, Right-Wing Leaders (October 10, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Late summer can often be a quiet time for global affairs, economics, and the financial markets.  Especially in Europe, people are off on their long summer holidays, making it difficult to find a “quorum” for political events and business meetings while sapping liquidity in the investment markets.  This year,… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Updates on Russia-Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan (September 26, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF September has been full of dramatic developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and in the broader geopolitics of the region.  Indeed, now that we’re into autumn and Russia and Ukraine are both trying to improve their positions ahead of winter, it may be a good time… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War at Six Months: Some Reflections (September 12, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF On February 24, Russian forces entered Ukraine.  Despite warnings from U.S. intelligence about an invasion, the general consensus was that Moscow was merely threatening to act.  Thus, when Russia invaded, Europe was mostly caught by surprise.  Much of what followed was also unexpected. As we reach the six-month mark of… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (August 29, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (August 15, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF Soon after founding Confluence Investment Management, we formulated a position that the U.S. was in the early stages of ending its hegemonic role.  We postulated that this event would have a profound effect on the domestic and global economy, and, consequently, financial markets.  In traveling around the country discussing this… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Crises for Top U.S. Allies (August 1, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It’s been a hot summer for some of the United States’ key allies, and we don’t just mean the weather.  We’ve seen a major political assassination in Japan, the scandal-driven ouster of a prime minister in the United Kingdom, and a failed vote of confidence that led to the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Pandemic’s Impact on Inequality (July 18, 2022)

by Natalia Fields | PDF During the global coronavirus pandemic that exploded globally in 2020, perhaps the most notable economic development was the effort by governments around the world to stop the spread of infections through lockdowns, while simultaneously trying to support incomes and economic activity via loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies. Importantly, the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2022 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 21, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. Due to the Fourth of July holiday, our next geopolitical report will be published on July 18.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mineral Commodities in the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (June 6, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For many years, we’ve discussed how the United States has been backing away from its historical role as global hegemon, setting the stage for deglobalization and a fracturing of the world into separate geopolitical and economic blocs.  In our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report from May 9, 2022, we provided a… Read More »

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