Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Plunging U.S. Service Exports (December 6, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When people think about a country’s exports, imports, and trade balance, they often focus only on physical goods (sometimes referred to as “commodities” or “merchandise”). That makes some sense, given that physical goods account for the majority of international trade for most countries. Trade in physical goods can also… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (November 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 6.) During the 1970s, the world economy suffered through two oil shocks. The first, in 1973, was caused by the Yom Kippur War. The U.S. supported Israel, and the Arab states retaliated with an oil embargo. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Special Relationship (November 15, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Ever since the United Kingdom defeated the Spanish Armada in the 16th century, it has typically kept Europe at arm’s length. The victory not only showed that the British could successfully defend itself from invasion, but that it was an important power in Europe. This newfound confidence along with the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Fumio Kishida (November 8, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Whenever a big, rich country gets a new leader, there could be potential investment implications, and Japan is no exception to this rule. When former Prime Minister Suga announced last summer that he wouldn’t seek reelection as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the first step in Japan’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Approaching a Traffic Light in Germany (November 1, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Germany’s parliamentary elections in late September were momentous for several reasons. Perhaps most important, the elections set the stage for a new leader to take power as Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to stand for another term after leading Germany since 2005. However, even though the retiring Merkel is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Here Comes China! (October 25, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) in January 2017, it was believed that the agreement would die a quiet death. However, with the leadership of Japan and Australia, the agreement found new life and the remaining members decided to move forward with the deal. Although the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Thucydides (October 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF The Thucydides Trap is an idea that comes from the ancient Greek historian of the same name who described a situation where the incumbent superpower of the time, Sparta, was faced with an insurgent power, Athens. The two powers ended up in a ruinous war. Thucydides postulated that when an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – AUKUS (October 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On September 15, the leaders of the U.S., U.K., and Australia announced a new security relationship which includes a nuclear submarine arrangement with Australia. Although it will likely take a couple of decades before Australia will have its own indigenous nuclear propulsion vessels, the treaty means that the U.S. and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part IV: China (October 4, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Afghanistan and why great powers have fought over it for centuries. Part II examined how the United States exit from Afghanistan will affect Pakistan, India, and Iran. Last week, Part III focused on how the U.S. exit will play… Read More »