Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Issue of the Terms of Trade (June 12, 2023)

Bill O’Grady | PDF In a recent Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report, we discussed the emergence of the petroyuan.  One of the important aspects of that report was that foreign nations were beginning to pay for oil in their own currencies.  As we noted in the report, George Shultz and Henry Kissinger negotiated a deal with the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s New National Security Law (May 30, 2023)

Bill O’Grady | PDF In late April, China released a new version of its national security law.  Shortly thereafter, some prominent U.S. firms were raided by national security operatives, and there were reports of database access being restricted.  In this report, we will discuss the new law and who has run afoul of the rules… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Opportunities and Risks in a Tripolar Nuclear World (May 15, 2023)

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Some 30 years into China’s development boom, it’s no longer controversial to say that tomorrow’s global investment environment will be shaped by Beijing’s effort to displace the United States as the world’s dominant country.  China remains focused on building its various sources of power, whether they be political, economic, technological,… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente (May 1, 2023)

Bill O’Grady | PDF In early March, China brokered a thaw between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).  The two countries have been at odds for decades, even before the Iranian Revolution in 1979.  Essentially, both nations believe themselves to be the rightful leader of the region.  The nations had been allied during… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – U.S. Intelligence Sharing as a Tool of International Relations (April 17, 2023)

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Why should investors care about international relations?  Why should they pay attention as great powers jostle for influence and dominance across the globe?  One simple answer is that the global economy tends to grow better when there is one dominant country or “hegemon” that provides security, order, effective instruments for… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Windsor Framework (April 3, 2023)

Thomas Wash | PDF On February 27, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced an important agreement to resolve disputes over the Irish border. The arrangement, referred to as the Windsor Framework, has been hailed by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as a step toward restoring trust between the EU and U.K. However, despite… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the U.S.-China Military Balance of Power (March 20, 2023)

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2021, we published a series of reports assessing the overall balance of power between the United States and China in military, economic, and diplomatic terms.  Looking comprehensively at both countries’ power and sources of power, we judged that the U.S. retains the greater capacity to influence the world… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Enter the Petroyuan (March 6, 2023)

Bill O’Grady | PDF In December, General Secretary Xi made a state visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) where he discussed the potential for trading oil in CNY.  Although nothing formal was signed on this issue, Xi suggested that the KSA should trade oil and gas using the CNY for settlement.  Talks between… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Chip War: Book Review (February 21, 2023)

Thomas Wash | PDF It was simple in the beginning. American firms developed all the designs for semiconductor chips, and Asian manufacturers turned them into reality. It was a match made in capitalist heaven. This all changed after the pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities in the business model, and the situation only worsened after Russia’s… Read More »

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