Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part III (August 13, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal earlier this year and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases, the first of which went into effect in early August with a second round in November.  In Part I of this report, we introduced this topic and covered the first… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part II (August 6, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power.  This week, we will discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Response #3: Closing the Strait of Hormuz On its… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part I (July 30, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  The European participants (the other signatories were the U.K., Russia, France, Germany and China) tried to convince President Trump that leaving the pact would be a mistake, but President Trump has… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part II (July 23, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we defined important terms that shape the political alignments and examined the coalitions that mostly define the political sphere.[1]  This week, we make some general observations of how the coalitions interact, discuss the “natural” pairings of the coalitions and examine historical examples.  We will conclude with market ramifications. Observations There is… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part I (July 16, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The rise of populism and the preference for unconventional leaders are upending the world order that the U.S. created after WWII.  Accordingly, across the West, we are seeing a steady rejection of centrist, establishment parties.  Here are some of the changes we have observed recently: France: Emmanuel Macron was elected to the presidency… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Return of AMLO (July 9, 2018)

by Thomas Wash On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,[1] running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system.  For the first time in nearly a century,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 25, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published July 9.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part III (June 18, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady This week, we will conclude our study on China’s foreign reserves.  In Part I, we discussed the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus.  In Part II, we used the macroeconomic saving identity to analyze the economic relationship between China and the U.S.  This week, using this… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part II (June 11, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady In the first part of this report, we discussed the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus.  This week, we will use the macroeconomic saving identity to analyze the economic relationship between China and the U.S.  Next week, using this analysis, we will discuss the likelihood that… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part I (June 4, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady We often get questions about China’s foreign reserves.  The fear is that China’s massive “pile” of foreign exchange reserves is a risk factor for U.S. markets.  In the first part of this report, we will discuss the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus.  In Part II,… Read More »

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