Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe’s Push to Close the AI Gap (May 4, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The European Union is seeking a place at the starting line of the AI race as it attempts to catch up with the United States and China. According to the latest Competitiveness Report, not a single EU company founded in the past 50 years has organically reached a market capitalization… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The War in Iran and the End of US Hegemony (April 20, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In a Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report late last year, we argued that the 2025 trade dispute between the United States and China revealed just how dramatically Beijing has increased its comprehensive power — military, political, economic, and technological. We argued that China’s comprehensive power may now rival or even surpass… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – From the Shah to the Strait: The US Gamble to Stabilize the Gulf (March 23, 2026)
by Thomas Wash & Bill O’Grady | PDF It has been nearly 50 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah of Iran, replacing the Persian monarchy with a theocracy that sent shockwaves through the West. This upheaval triggered the decade’s second major oil crisis and effectively dismantled Washington’s “Twin Pillars” policy. By losing… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of US Dollar Stablecoins (March 9, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF The expansion and regulation of stablecoins have become major policy goals of the Trump administration. This form of cryptocurrency has the potential to dramatically improve the transfer of funds between economic entities and could be a new source of demand for US Treasurys. In this report, we will define what… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great Chinese Purge (February 23, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One defining feature of the world today is the large share of the global population living under political systems that are authoritarian or moving in that direction. With 1.405 billion people, or about 18% of the global population total, China is the best example of that. Still, we suspect… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Foreign Policy: Comparing the New vs. the Old (February 9, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report from January 26, we posited that the United States under the new administration has adopted a foreign policy quite distinct from that of the previous eight decades. We showed how the new US policy is a type of neo-imperialism with elements of neo-colonialism. We… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have long tracked how voters in the United States are increasingly recoiling at the costs of global hegemony, i.e., the US’s traditional role as the big, dominant country that provides international security, order, and the reserve currency. We’ve shown that as voters became angry at the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the New US National Security Strategy (January 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As required by law, the new United States administration released its updated National Security Strategy in December 2025 (NSS 2025). As many observers have noted, the document marks a dramatic shift from the traditional NSS documents of the Cold War and the Globalization eras, not only in terms of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Geopolitical Outlook for 2026 (December 15, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2025; the next report will be published on January 12, 2026.) In mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year, as is our custom. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential new… Read More »