Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year.

We have subtitled this report “The Polycrisis” to reflect the complicated and multifaceted geopolitical world that is rapidly evolving.  The number of issues we cover here is much greater than our usual mid-year update, but we felt that all these matters were important enough to mention.  They are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: Russian Political Instability

Issue #2: Ukraine’s Military Prospects

Issue #3: China Navigating Great Power Relations

Issue #4: China’s Youth Unemployment

Issue #5: China’s Debt Problem

Issue #6: U.S. Superpower Status and Fracturing Domestic Consensus

Issue #7: Re-Industrialization

Issue #8: Climate Change and Great Power Competition

Issue #9: The Problem with Mexico

Issue #10: Artificial Intelligence

Issue #11: EU vs. Poland and Hungary

Issue #12: Middle East Realignment

Issue #13: Iranian Nuclear Breakout

Issue #14: Emerging Market Debt

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google

The podcast episode for this particular edition is posted under the Confluence of Ideas series.