Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New Era of Higher Defense Budgets (March 28, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed the world in the blink of an eye. We think the war and its aftermath will reverse much of the economic globalization of recent decades and cleave the world into two or more blocs with only limited interplay. We believe sanctions on Russia will… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (March 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. ̶ Vladimir Lenin Over the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the impact of the war in Ukraine. Clearly, the situation is highly fluid[1] and projections on how the future will be affected by the war must… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Experiment (February 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google The Turkish economy is being roiled by spiking inflation and a sharp decline in the Turkish lira (TRY). The orthodox response to such a macroeconomic crisis is austerity. Fiscal and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (February 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google For the past two months, Russia has been mobilizing around Ukraine, leading to fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The U.S. has warned Russia against… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (January 31, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google Over the past month, unrest has developed in Kazakhstan. The unrest began as protests against rising fuel prices, but it soon blossomed into broader, more widespread,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Would a U.S.-China War Look Like? (January 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: As we shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule for this report in 2022, we introduce the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google) We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. Starting in 2022, we will shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule and will add a new Geopolitical Podcast with each report.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Plunging U.S. Service Exports (December 6, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When people think about a country’s exports, imports, and trade balance, they often focus only on physical goods (sometimes referred to as “commodities” or “merchandise”). That makes some sense, given that physical goods account for the majority of international trade for most countries. Trade in physical goods can also… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (November 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 6.) During the 1970s, the world economy suffered through two oil shocks. The first, in 1973, was caused by the Yom Kippur War. The U.S. supported Israel, and the Arab states retaliated with an oil embargo. … Read More »