by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as Huawei (002502, CNY 3.71) gets a reprieve.  Political turmoil rises in Europe.  Here is what we are watching:

Huawei: The Commerce Department announced a reprieve for the Chinese tech company, giving it three months before restrictions are applied.[1]  It isn’t clear if tech companies will work with the company with such a short time frame,[2] but it is possible that some sort of agreement will be reached…or not.  The key issue is the goal of the policy.  If it is to undermine China’s ability to rise up the value chain,[3] then cutting off Huawei from U.S. technology makes sense.  But, if the action was simply to punish the company for bad behavior, it was probably overly punitive.[4]  In any case, financial markets have reacted positively to the news as it appears to be a decrease in tensions.  In related news, a former trade negotiator indicated that the U.S. and China may be close to a deal.[5]

Elections: Yesterday, we noted that a political scandal was brewing in Austria.  Until yesterday, the ruling coalition included a center-right party and a right-wing populist group.  The latter, the Freedom Party, has been embroiled in a scandal since a video surfaced showing the interior minister, a member of the right-wing populist group, offering to give contracts to a Russian national in return for the Russian buying a newspaper.  The video was a sting operation, but it isn’t clear who conducted the sting.[6]  The Freedom Party has left the coalition over the event[7] and PM Kurz has called for elections, which will likely occur in September.

The political insight from this event highlights the difficulties establishment parties have working with populists.  The latter tend to lack the political “training” compared to the establishment.  Establishment party members have a path in government and learn political skills, e.g., working with the media, the “art” of leaking and methods of raising money without bringing disgrace.  This issue isn’t just on the right; the left-wing establishment also faces difficulties dealing with left-wing populists.

Meanwhile, the new president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, surprised the political system by calling snap parliamentary elections within minutes after taking office.[8]  Zelensky needs support in the legislature, so calling elections soon after his landslide victory shows a bit of savvy that is unexpected in a political neophyte.  It remains to be seen if his affiliated candidates can win in the legislature.[9]

In Indonesia, the incumbent, Jokowi was declared the winner.[10]  Indonesian equities rallied on the news.

In a surprising development, former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced she would not be running for president in Argentina’s October elections.[11]  It was widely expected she would try to return to the presidency.  Instead, she will be the running mate for another Peronist, Alberto Fernandez.  Financial markets didn’t quite know what to think; the peso fell over 1% on the news.  It is highly likely that Kirchner will be the power behind the throne if the Peronists win.  It’s possible that financial markets fear that if Kirchner can hide behind Fernandez she may be even more radical than she would be as president.  Financial markets are clearly worried about a return of the Peronists; Argentina suffered severe recession and defaulted on debt under the Kirchners.

Debt limits: Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader McCarthy will meet today with administration officials to discuss the upcoming debt limit issue.  The limit is expected to be hit in September.  If an agreement to lift the debt ceiling isn’t made, automatic spending cuts in the neighborhood of $130 bn will be required.  We don’t expect these talks to generate a deal today but the fact that talks are occurring is positive.

Brexit: PM May is likely to drag her deal to Parliament for a fourth vote; it is highly unlikely it will pass.[12]  If the government falls, the prospect of a Corbyn government will be a significantly negative factor for U.K. assets.  Here’s another interesting twist—those hoping to avoid a hard Brexit have been pinning their hopes on a customs union, which would allow for free goods trade with the EU.  However, there is a problem with this maneuver.  When the EU makes free trade deals with other nations, goods flow into the EU at a reduced or no tariff rate and then can flow to the customs union nations without tariffs as well.  However, because the agreement the EU made doesn’t cover the customs union nations, those nations find themselves facing tariffs that the EU states don’t.[13]  This is further evidence that there is no halfway with Brexit; the U.K. should either stay or leave. 

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/c74cbfdc-7b48-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce388c7f7a24f0004bd83cc&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/google-will-work-with-huawei-for-next-90-days-after-restrictions-eased.html

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/business/huawei-trump-china-trade.html and https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/the-guardian-view-on-google-versus-huawei-no-winners?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld

[4] https://www.ft.com/content/6bd052b2-7aef-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-talks-will-end-with-a-deal-former-negotiator-says-11558406485?mod=newsviewer_click

[6] https://www.politico.eu/article/sebastian-kurz-triggers-austrian-election-after-far-right-scandal/

[7] https://www.ft.com/content/32d7e490-7ae8-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce388c7f7a24f0004bd83cc&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[8] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-parliament-election.html?te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_MBE_p_20190521&section=topNews

[9] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV_PzRb1pLk

[10] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/jokowi-declared-winner-a-month-after-indonesia-presidential-vote?cmpid=BBD052119_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=190521&utm_campaign=marketsasia&stream=business

[11] https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/05/21/1558423889000/Political-curve-ball-rattles-Argentine-investors/

[12] https://www.ft.com/content/c0576116-7a42-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce388c7f7a24f0004bd83cc&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[13] https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-shows-brexit-uk-britain-that-a-customs-union-can-hurt/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=5179a5068c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_21_04_48&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-5179a5068c-190334489

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  U.S. equity futures rolled over in the early morning hours on trade concerns.  Tensions with Iran increase.  Here is what we are watching:

China trade: Positions appear to be hardening, but the tariffs are becoming less of an issue and the restrictions on Huawei (002502, CNY 3.63) are becoming the more critical point.  Over the weekend, U.S. spymasters held meetings with tech executives to discuss the dangers of dealing with Huawei.[1]  Reports that tech firms were starting to suspend business with Huawei took equities lower overnight.[2]  Tensions with the company are starting to affect trade talks; both sides do not appear in a hurry to meet again.[3]

Rising tensions with China pose broader issues for markets.  We have heard numerous commentators suggest that a new “cold war” is looming between the two nations.  This is probably the wrong analogy.  The geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and Soviet Union didn’t have a significant economic element to it.  There wasn’t much trade between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. before WWII; because of this lack of economic ties, the policy of isolating the communist bloc was rather easy.  However, this is not the case between the U.S. and China.  Because China used the U.S. hegemonic trading system (accepted the dollar as reserve currency, operated in WTO), American and Chinese economic ties are rather deep.  A better historic analogy is the U.K. and Germany before WWI.  The former saw the latter as a rising power that it needed to contain, while the latter saw the former as trying to constrain its development.  There is an apocryphal story that at the onset of the war, British insurance companies complained to the Admiralty that the Royal Navy was sinking German ships that they had insured.  Isolating the communist bloc during the Cold War didn’t adversely affect most of the Free World economy, but trying to isolate China will have serious ramifications on the global economy.  The seriousness depends on how far it goes.  We note a high level of bipartisanship in Congress toward the administration’s China policy.  There is the potential that the markets are underestimating the impact of the economic war with China.  And, as the WWI experience showed, economic ties might lead to geopolitical calculations and increase the odds of conflict.[4]

Meanwhile, the rising tensions with China are leading the U.S. to make peace in other trade venues.  This factor could help other markets, mostly Canada and Mexico.[5]

The Iran issue: It appears there are divisions within the Trump government on this issue.  The president has little interest in armed conflict with Iran, but that can’t be said for his secretary of state or his national security director.  However, we note that the president warned Iran not to attack[6] the U.S., suggesting it would be the “end of Iran.”[7]  We doubt that either side wants a full conflict; in fact, such a war would be out of character for Iran, which tends to prefer less full wars.  But, the potential for miscalculation is elevated, and supporting oil prices.

OPEC: Although there is clear reluctance on the part of the Saudis, it does appear that the cartel is leaning toward boosting output in June.  Several producers, notably Venezuela and Iran, are unable to meet their quotas and the rest of the group may increase output to offset these losses.  Saudi Arabia would likely want to see higher prices but the Russians, due to their pricing structure, are keen to lift output.  We would look for a modest increase at mid-year.[8]

Elections: The biggest surprise was in Australia, where the Conservative incumbent outperformed the polls and won election.[9]  It appears PM Modi will hold serve in India.[10]  And, a political scandal will bring new elections in Austria.[11]

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/dde4f848-78ed-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-alphabet-exclusive/exclusive-google-suspends-some-business-with-huawei-after-trump-blacklist-source-idUSKCN1SP0NB

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/17/us-china-trade-talks-have-stalled-sources.html ; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-tough-rhetoric-leaves-trade-talks-with-u-s-in-limbo-idUSKCN1SN207 ; https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010793/china-no-rush-another-trade-war-talks-trip-us-treasury

[4] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3010897/us-sends-another-warship-test-beijings-claim-disputed-south

[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-to-resolve-other-trade-disputes-amid-china-impasse-11558132965?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[6] https://www.ft.com/content/ecb224ce-7a6c-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[7] https://www.ft.com/content/25d906e4-7a92-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[8] https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/05/19/business/19reuters-oil-opec-scenarios.html?searchResultPosition=6

[9] https://www.ft.com/content/599112c2-79fe-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[10] https://www.ft.com/content/8c856278-7a44-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

[11] https://www.ft.com/content/64c8786c-795c-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?emailId=5ce231d11cbd1e0004e11456&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday!  Markets are down due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China.  Here are the stories we are following:

Trade talks on hold: It appears the president’s attempt to bring China back to the negotiating table by targeting one of its key entities may have backfired.  China has expressed an unwillingness to resume trade talks following the ban of one of its companies.  After months of progress in trade negotiations the two sides are at an impasse.  Presidents Xi and Trump are expected to meet at the G-20 summit in Japan next month.  It is unclear whether the two will be able to work out their differences there, but we are optimistic that talks will resume following the meeting.

Trump backtracks on Iran: President Trump has informed the Pentagon that he does not want to go to war with Iran.  The president is believed to be wary of engaging in an open-ended war without any provocations due to fears that it could hurt his reelection chances.  In addition, he is getting frustrated with the information from his advisors about Iran’s military agenda[1] as he feels they are trying to rush the U.S. into war.  In fact, some of Iran’s aggressive behavior may have been due to the perception that the U.S. was planning an attack.[2]  As the president attempts to reign in the hawkish wing of his administration, we expect him to receive outside pressure from Iranian rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.  Although we are confident that the president doesn’t want war, we are not sure if he feels comfortable with being perceived as weak on Iran.  As a result, we believe there is still a small chance of an open conflict between the two countries.

May resigns: PM Theresa May has informed her party that she will step down from her position as party leader.  May has come under immense pressure from members of her party to step down after the Brexit deal she negotiated failed to make it through Parliament on three separate occasions.  Boris Johnson appears to be the front-runner for the job.  The current instability surrounding her departure and her possible replacement has added to the uncertainty over Brexit.  As a result, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is rising.

Additional trade news: The White House announced it is going to remove Turkey from its Generalized System of Preferences program.  This program allows certain exports to be sent to the U.S. duty-free from certain developing countries.  Turkey’s removal is due to it being considered a developed nation.  Furthermore, the White House has also slashed tariffs on Turkish steel from 50% to 25%, which is more in line with other countries.  The Turkish lira fell against the dollar following the report, but returned as the market recognized that the decision has not altered the relationship between the countries.

Australian elections: On Saturday, Australians will vote for their next prime minister.  The two leading candidates are incumbent Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Bill Shorten.  Currently, the polls show the race is going to be tight as most voters don’t really see a difference between the two candidates.  Although it is unlikely that the winner of the election will have a huge impact on markets, we will be watching how well third-party candidates perform.  Australia has had six different presidents in 10 years, all coming from either the Liberal Party or Labor Party.  Being one of the few countries that make voting compulsory, a huge support for third-party candidates could pave the way for more extreme candidates.

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-frustrated-by-advisers-is-not-convinced-the-time-is-right-to-attack-iran/2019/05/15/bbf5835e-1fbf-4035-a744-12799213e824_story.html?utm_term=.7fb02937a92f

[2] https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-admin-moves-fueled-irans-aggression-us-intel-says

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are higher this morning as fears of a trade dispute between the U.S. and Europe dissipate.  That being said, escalating tensions in the Middle East and between U.S./China have caused a rally in bonds. Here are the stories we are following today:

All-in on China: As expected, the president issued an executive order that would effectively ban Huawei (CNY 3.83, +0.052) technology in the U.S.  In addition, it has been reported that sources close to the White House believe President Trump has decided to postpone imposing tariffs on car imports by up to six months.[1]  The delay will likely ease tensions between the president and members of his own party who have come out against additional tariffs imposed on China.  This suggests a trade agreement with China may not be imminent.  With the president’s focus on China there is a reduced chance that he will provoke a trade clash with the EU and Japan over car imports as a two-front trade war could hurt his reelection chances.

Chinese sell-off: It was reported on Wednesday that China’s U.S. Treasury holdings fell to a two-year low in March.  The sell-off has sparked concerns that China could offload its Treasury holdings in order to gain an upper hand in trade negotiations.  These fears have been heightened following the recent trade actions taken by both countries.  Although it is possible that China could use its position as the largest owner of U.S. government debt to sway trade discussions, we believe it is unlikely.  As we have mentioned in the past, China’s U.S. debt holdings is one method it uses to suppress the value of its currency and maintain its trade advantage with the U.S.  Therefore, a sell-off could backfire.

Theresa May resignation: Today, PM Theresa May will meet with senior members of the Conservative Party to discuss her resignation.  Members of her party would like to see her step down immediately, whereas PM May would like to stay on until the Brexit deal has passed through Parliament.  However, she has already failed three times to get the Brexit deal passed, and negotiations with the Labour Party have already fallen apart.  The controversy has not gone unnoticed by markets; the pound slid to a three-month low against the dollar as concerns of a no-deal Brexit continue to grow.

Energy update: Crude oil inventories rose 5.4 mb last week compared to the forecast drop of 1.2 mb.  There was a 1.8 mb draw of the SPR, meaning the actual build was closer to 3.6 mb.

In the details, refining activity rose 1.6% compared to the 0.6% increase forecast.  Estimated U.S. production fell slightly, by 0.1 mbpd to 12.3 mbpd.  Crude oil imports rose 0.9 mbpd, while exports fell 0.3 mbpd.

This is the seasonal pattern chart for commercial crude oil inventories.  We are entering the spring/summer withdrawal season next week; this week’s decline is consistent with the normal seasonal pattern.  If this trend continues, we will see weekly draws in stockpiles until the third week of September.

Based on oil inventories alone, fair value for crude oil is $50.61.  Based on the EUR, fair value is $51.45.  Using both independent variables, a more complete way of looking at the data, fair value is $50.34.  This is one of those circumstances when the combined model fair value does not lie between the two single-variable models.  Current prices are running well above fair value.  Geopolitical risks, with this week’s focus on Iran, is adding around $10 to $13 per barrel to crude oil prices.

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/379dd484-771f-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  Markets are mixed this morning as Chinese equities lifted on speculation that Beijing will provide stimulus following weak economic data, while concerns that U.S. tariffs could dampen economic growth have weighed on U.S. futures.  Here are the stories we are following today:

War with Iran?  Increased posturing by Iran has led the White House to call for an evacuation of all but essential staff at the embassy and consulate in Iraq.  Tensions continue to simmer between the U.S. and Iran following the president’s decision to ban countries from purchasing oil from Iran, effective May 1.  Currently, the two countries appear to be in somewhat of a standoff.  It is believed that Iran has mobilized forces in Iran and Syria, while the White House is reportedly discussing sending military forces to the region.  The president has downplayed discussions about possible military plans, but rumors persist.[1]  It was reported this morning that the U.S. has already reached out to some of its allies for possible support, but they have declined.[2]  That being said, we believe President Trump, similar to his predecessor Barack Obama, favors holding off on military action against Iran until he has the support of allies.  However, this could change if the president is perceived as being weak.  If conflict does break out it will likely be supportive of oil prices.

Possible Huawei ban?  Today, President Trump is expected to issue an executive order that would effectively ban all companies from using Huawei (CNY 3.78, +0.08) technology.  The executive order will likely escalate trade tensions as China might view the move as a blatant attempt to undermine its tech ambitions.  Huawei is crucial to Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” plan, which is designed to move China up the supply chain in order to avoid Japanese-style deflation.  The U.S. has never liked the plan as it fears the initiative could make China a more formidable military opponent.  Thus, the U.S. has used trade negotiations to impede its progress.  Additionally, the U.S. has accused Huawei technology of having spy capabilities and as a result has encouraged allies to steer clear of using it.  The dispute surrounding Huawei is the latest example that the trade dispute could extend longer than the market has anticipated as neither side appears ready back down.

Fed taking on China: President Trump has called on the Fed to ease monetary policy in order to offset the side effects that tariffs may have on the economy.  This represents another attempt by the president to force the Fed to stimulate the economy as he prepares to run for reelection.  The Fed has consistently stated that it sees no reason to lower rates as the economy appears to be growing and unemployment remains at a 49-year low.  We believe the president could use his campaign rallies to stir up his base against the Fed.

European joint military project: In another sign of a growing rift between the U.S. and its allies, the Pentagon sent an angry letter to the EU warning against any European military partnership that does not include the U.S.  This comes in response to a plan by the EU to develop and manufacture its own weapons as well as restrict the amount of weapons it purchases from non-EU companies.  The Pentagon has vowed to retaliate if the EU were to follow through on the proposal.  In all fairness, it appears the EU may be responding to the president’s suggestion that cars from the EU could represent a national security threat to the U.S.  The president is due to make a decision on Friday as to whether or not car imports represent a national security threat and therefore could be subjected to tariffs under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-military/trump-denies-us-plan-to-send-120000-troops-to-counter-iran-threat-idUSKCN1SK1YM

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/world/middleeast/trump-iran-threats.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were mixed this morning as rising tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to increase, while a softening of rhetoric by the president has restored optimism for a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China.  Here are the stories we are following this morning:

War in the Middle East?  Earlier this morning, Saudi Arabia reported drone attacks on Saudi Aramco pumping stations, representing more escalation of tensions in the Middle East.  Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates vessels were attacked.  No one has come forward to take responsibility for the attacks, but the U.S. has indicated it believes Iran was likely responsible for the latter.[1]  There are also rising tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the body of water located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.  The strait is crucial for oil and natural gas shipments, and Iran is strategically in place to control the body of water.  Last month, Iran threatened to restrict trade within the strait following the White House’s decision to not renew sanction waivers for countries that still depend on Iranian oil.[2]  Tensions between the two countries appear to have reached a boiling point.  Although the U.S. has not fully concluded Iran was responsible, it appears the U.S. is already preparing its military for a possible response.  And, the Pentagon has already drawn up a military plan in case American troops are attacked.[3]  At this point, it is unclear whether war is imminent but Iran and the U.S. are walking a very delicate line and neither side wants to look weak.  We will continue to monitor this situation.

Double trouble for Big Tech?  Yesterday, big tech made headlines after the Supreme Court agreed to rule on a case involving Apple (AAPL, $185.72) and as more democrats are advocating for increased regulation.[4]  The Supreme Court ruled that it would allow a lawsuit about whether the App Store violated anti-trust laws by banning iPhone users from purchasing apps outside of its store.  The ruling overturned a 1977 ruling which argued that consumers could sue the owner, in this case the developer, if its prices were considered inflated.  This move by the Supreme Court suggests they believe big tech firms have too much control over their platforms.  This comes in light of online retailers like Amazon (AMZN, $1,822.68) being scrutinized for their anti-competitive practices.

The increased politicization of tech firms is further evidence that the country is shifting from an efficiency cycle back to an equality cycle.  Although we don’t expect a change to happen overnight, we expect capital to lose some of its control over the political system as candidates find it harder to garner support without appealing to the extremes of the political spectrum.  So far, three high-profile democratic candidates, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, have stated they would support increased regulation of big tech.  An escalation of rhetoric regarding big tech would likely weigh on equities.[5]^, [6]^, [7]

Carrot and stick: Following the release of a list of $300 billion of Chinese goods that could potentially be hit with a 25% tariff if trade negotiations continue to be prolonged, the White House gave markets a glimmer of hope by confirming that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting next month.  Markets have come under pressure as the U.S. and China continue their tit-for-tat tariff exchange.  In addition, President Trump is likely feeling pressure from members of his own party as farmers continue to bear the brunt of this trade war.

View the complete PDF

---

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-tankers-attacked-before-entering-persian-gulf-11557725971?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-22/iran-will-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-it-can-t-use-it-fars

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[4] https://www.ft.com/content/c9d90384-7588-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201

[5] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/2020-hopeful-joe-biden-says-hes-open-to-breaking-up-facebook.html

[6] https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/12/kamala-harris-facebook-regulation-1317655

[7] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/14/amazon-is-trying-to-soften-its-image-as-regulatory-scrutiny-grows.html