Tag: Russia
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (March 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.
̶ Vladimir Lenin
Over the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the impact of the war in Ukraine. Clearly, the situation is highly fluid[1] and projections on how the future will be affected by the war must be tempered with the fact that conditions will certainly change.
In this report, we will focus on the economic sanctions and their effects on globalization. As the conflict has evolved, Western nations have moved quickly to implement serious sanctions on Russia that will likely have far-reaching effects not just on the Russian economy but also on global trade and investment.
Our report begins with the sanctions on the Russian Central Bank and the impact on its foreign reserves; the discussion includes an analysis of Russian policies designed to accumulate reserves. From there, we project how reserve managers address the risk unveiled by the sanctions, including how nations view trade and development. Using this information, we examine how this change will affect globalization and what impact these changes will have on the economy, inflation, and markets. A look at the role of cryptocurrencies is also included. Finally, we close with potential market ramifications.
Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google
[1] For comments on how the war is unfolding, we recommend monitoring our Daily Comment.
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #3 “Ukraine: Key Questions” (Posted 2/14/22)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (February 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF
Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google
For the past two months, Russia has been mobilizing around Ukraine, leading to fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The U.S. has warned Russia against such action, lining out extensive sanctions and other potential responses.
Given the fluid nature of the situation in Ukraine, it is difficult to create a report detailing current events. After all, they are changing so rapidly that this element is best left to the media. Instead, we want to give some context to the current situation formatted in a series of questions with responses from both of us, Bill and Patrick. As always, we will close with market ramifications.
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #2 “Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan” (Posted 1/31/22)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (January 31, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF
Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google
Over the past month, unrest has developed in Kazakhstan. The unrest began as protests against rising fuel prices, but it soon blossomed into broader, more widespread, and violent civil disorder that had the appearance of an inter-elite conflict. Although Central Asia doesn’t usually garner the world’s attention, instability in the region could affect larger countries, such as China, Russia, and India. The volatility in Kazakhstan was also something of a surprise as the country has tended to be stable during its period of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Despite being often overlooked by the Western media, Kazakhstan is an important country. It’s a major oil producer and the world’s dominant supplier of uranium. Oil prices, already elevated, rose further on fears that the Kazakh disorder would lead to additional supply disruptions. Uranium and associated equities also rose in price on the reports. In this report, we begin with some background on Kazakhstan, including a short history and a discussion of the region’s role in Russia’s imperial behavior. We next delve into the reasons for the January unrest and the way it played out for Kazakh and Russian leaders. As always, we conclude with market ramifications.
Confluence of Ideas – #19 “The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook” (Posted 2/9/21)
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Back to the Future? Prospects for a New Cold War Against China (October 12, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
This edition of our Weekly Geopolitical Report explores the prospects of a new Cold War between the United States and China. Based on the author’s personal experiences at the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, this report explores the various costs that would likely arise from a new Cold War and what those costs imply for investment strategy.
When I asked her if she had any trouble getting her ticket from St. Petersburg to Moscow to join me for the long weekend, she said, “No.” Then, with a sly grin and a meaningful glance deep into my eyes, she added, “I just asked for help from a friend in the KGB who works for President Gorbachev.” I suppose I grinned a bit, too, since she had just confirmed her association with Soviet intelligence, which I had suspected ever since we met in a hotel bar in St. Petersburg weeks before. If I did let a grin slip out, it probably also reflected the irony of knowing how badly my office at the CIA was going to react to this forbidden dalliance when I got back to Washington. But it was a beautiful, bright, crisp autumn morning in Moscow in September 1991, just after the attempted coup against Gorbachev, and I was still young.
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (July 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady
As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
Issue #1: The Political Fragmentation of the West
Issue #2: North Korea
Issue #3: An Unsettled Middle East
Issue #4: A Resurgent Russia
Issue #5: China’s Financial Situation