Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (March 14, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF

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There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

̶ Vladimir Lenin

Over the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the impact of the war in Ukraine.  Clearly, the situation is highly fluid[1] and projections on how the future will be affected by the war must be tempered with the fact that conditions will certainly change.

In this report, we will focus on the economic sanctions and their effects on globalization.  As the conflict has evolved, Western nations have moved quickly to implement serious sanctions on Russia that will likely have far-reaching effects not just on the Russian economy but also on global trade and investment.

Our report begins with the sanctions on the Russian Central Bank and the impact on its foreign reserves; the discussion includes an analysis of Russian policies designed to accumulate reserves.  From there, we project how reserve managers address the risk unveiled by the sanctions, including how nations view trade and development.  Using this information, we examine how this change will affect globalization and what impact these changes will have on the economy, inflation, and markets. A look at the role of cryptocurrencies is also included.  Finally, we close with potential market ramifications.

Read the full report


[1] For comments on how the war is unfolding, we recommend monitoring our Daily Comment.