Tag: Iran

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – From the Shah to the Strait: The US Gamble to Stabilize the Gulf (March 23, 2026)

Posted on by Amanda Ahne

by Thomas Wash & Bill O’Grady  | PDF

It has been nearly 50 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah of Iran, replacing the Persian monarchy with a theocracy that sent shockwaves through the West. This upheaval triggered the decade’s second major oil crisis and effectively dismantled Washington’s “Twin Pillars” policy. By losing Iran as a strategic counterweight alongside Saudi Arabia, the United States saw its primary mechanism for regional proxy influence collapse — a blow compounded by the wave of oil field nationalizations across the Middle East from the preceding years.

Today, a new regional conflict has emerged as a definitive inflection point — one that could reverse decades of geopolitical momentum. Through Operation Epic Fury, the US and Israel have launched a decisive campaign to dismantle the current regime’s military and leadership infrastructure, signaling a bold attempt to usher in a new era for Middle East oil politics. While fraught with risk, this escalation presents a singular opportunity to reassert Western leverage and fundamentally reshape the regional balance of power.

In this report, we examine the geopolitical significance of Iran and what the current conflict could mean for US global influence. We also summarize the potential market ramifications, including the impact on bond markets, the US dollar, and equities.

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Due to the holiday, there will be no Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on April 6th.

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict (July 28, 2025)

Posted on by Amanda Ahne

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA  | PDF

During the night of June 13, an already unsettled Middle East was shocked to a new level of unrest when bombs from an Israeli airstrike rained down on Iran’s key nuclear and military facilities. In what proved to be the opening salvo of a 12-Day War, which included the first use of “bunker-buster” bombs by the United States, Israel asserted that the barrage was necessary before its adversary could get any closer to building an atomic weapon. In an already tense and conflict-ridden region, questions abound as to how this conflict will affect the Middle East’s balance of power and the region’s relations with the rest of the world. With Iran’s nuclear program at the center of the conflict and the future of its government in question, a heightened sense of risk and uncertainty looms large over the deliberations of global leaders.

 This report provides an overview of the war and discusses where things stand now (at least as of our publication date). The report also addresses the conflict’s likely impact on the Middle Eastern balance of power and examines its possible long-term regional effects. As always, we conclude with investment implications.

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Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Recent Iranian Election: Results & Implications (August 19, 2024)

Posted on by Amanda Ahne

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF

The Iranian political landscape experienced a major earthquake on May 19, when the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on his return from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. Consequently, in June and July, Iran conducted a two-round presidential election with a surprising result. In a country ruled by a highly conservative theocracy, whose political system has become increasingly dominated by its most hardline, right-wing parties, a reformist (i.e., moderate) candidate came out on top. How did this happen, and what does it mean for the rest of the world? Will it inspire changes in Iranian domestic politics or foreign policy? How will it affect the United States, and what does it mean for investors? Since Iran tends to be a disruptive force in the world, these and other questions need our attention.

This report begins with a review of three key challenges currently facing Iran: regional and global opposition to Iran’s long-term geopolitical strategy, deepening economic woes, and an upsurge in societal unrest. We continue with an explanation of the role of the president in the Iranian political structure and a brief introduction to the winner of the election, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. We conclude with an explanation of why we do not expect this change of leadership to shift Iran’s geopolitical strategy, even if it does usher in adjustments to how it approaches its key challenges. As always, we conclude with implications for investors.

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Note: There will be no accompanying podcast for this report.

Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Soleimani (January 13, 2020)

Posted on by Rebekah Stovall

by Bill O’Grady

(Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, our next report will be published on January 27.)

On January 3rd, the U.S. launched a missile strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  As a high-profile commander, his death rocked the region and raised fears of a broader confrontation.

Although the situation remains fluid, Iran and the U.S. appear to have come to a point of stasis; in other words, the odds of further immediate escalation have declined.  In this report, we will discuss recent events and examine the context surrounding these events.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

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Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)

Posted on by Rebekah Stovall

by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA

(This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.)

As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for 2020.  It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward.  They are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: U.S. 2020 Presidential Election

Issue #2: Iran

Issue #3: China’s Debt

Issue #4: Demographics

Issue #5: North Korea

Honorable Mentions…

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