Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War (April 28, 2025)

by Thomas Wash  | PDF

Even though tariffs dominate the headlines today, export controls have emerged as an additional key weapon in the economic warfare between the United States and China. While the world’s two largest economies continue imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, they are also now strategically blocking exports of crucial technologies and minerals to each other. This transformation of supply chains into battlegrounds largely reflects how the two sides are vying for dominance in artificial intelligence. By restricting access to vital components like semiconductor equipment and rare earth elements, both nations seek to slow their rival’s technological advancement while strengthening their own competitive edge.

In this report, we show how the US-China economic war has spread beyond tariffs to encompass export controls. These trade restrictions are another step in our recently published “escalation ladder” showing how the US-China conflict could worsen (see Figure 1, next page). We focus here on the controls over semiconductor technology and critical minerals and show that each side is trying to mitigate the other’s supply cut-offs. We wrap up, as always, with a discussion of the implications for investors.

Read the full report

Note: The podcast for this report will be delayed until later this week.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (September 23, 2024)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

One of the defining characteristics of our investment strategy work here at Confluence is that we pay close attention to big, global trends in geopolitics, economics and trade, demographics, technology, and even social and political developments. We then try to determine how to incorporate those trends into our strategies, either by managing the risks they impose or identifying and investing in the associated opportunities. We think this discipline can be fruitful because big, global trends are often long lasting and relatively predictable. Shorter-term, idiosyncratic forces can still make asset prices volatile from time to time, but the impact of “megatrends” often comes back to the fore relatively quickly.

Our regular readers know that we pay especially close attention to geopolitical trends. However, in this report, we want to provide a broader survey of several megatrends that are likely to remain in place for at least the next decade and be especially salient to investors. This list isn’t necessarily comprehensive; another writer could easily come up with an alternative set. All the same, we think it will be interesting for investors to consider the wide range of global trends that could affect their investments.

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify