Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (October 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices are approaching $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 2.3 mb compared to the 1.0 build forecast. The SPR declined 0.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 1.4 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.2 mbpd to 11.3… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part IV: China (October 4, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Afghanistan and why great powers have fought over it for centuries. Part II examined how the United States exit from Afghanistan will affect Pakistan, India, and Iran. Last week, Part III focused on how the U.S. exit will play… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Prices We Don’t See (October 1, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF For four consecutive months, consumer prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have risen 5% from the prior year. The pace of inflation has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may be wrong in describing inflation as being transitory. However, our research suggests there may be… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices have rallied to above $75 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.6 mb compared to the 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 0.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 3.8 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part III: Russia and Central Asia (September 27, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Afghanistan and why great powers have fought over it for centuries. In Part II, last week, we examined how the United States exit from Afghanistan will affect Pakistan, India, and Iran. This week, our focus is on how… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Supply Side Worry on Inflation (September 24, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the 1970s, the U.S. had a serious inflation problem. By the end of the decade, it had become the most critical economic policy issue. Although inflation can be a complicated topic, one way of simplifying it is to see it through the intersection of aggregate supply and… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 23, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices continue to hold above $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.5 mb compared to the 2.8 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 4.7 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.5… Read More »