Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its efforts to combat inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a much more hawkish monetary policy stance through a combination of raising the fed funds rate and reducing its balance sheet. Global central banks, in contrast, have varying policy responses ranging from extensively accommodative to increasingly… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices did break out of a descending triangle, which is bullish, but for the most part, we look for prices to be rangebound for the next six months during the SPR withdrawal. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 8.0 mb compared to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Bank of Japan Cocks the Trigger (April 18, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Hollywood movies, the classic device to convey a menacing threat is to have the tough-guy cop pull back the hammer on his revolver and cock the trigger. It’s not enough that the cop just points his gun at the criminal. Once you hear that “click,” you know… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices appear to be settling into a trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.4 mb compared to an unchanged forecast. The SPR declined 3.9 mb, meaning the net build was 5.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production is unchanged… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bosnian Divide (April 11, 2022)
by Thomas Wash | PDF It took just two shots from Gavrilo Princip to change the world. That day in Sarajevo marked the end of the Habsburg dynasty, ignited the first of two intercontinental wars, and laid the groundwork for the present-day global order. Gavrilo, a Bosnian Serb, thought he would pave the way for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 7, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices remain volatile, moving on war news. The SPR release will likely be bearish for prices. Technically, the oil chart appears to have a descending triangle, which is often a bearish pattern. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 2.4 mb compared to a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Latin America’s Day in the Sun (April 4, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As we’ve previously described in many of our publications, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the world in profound, long-lasting ways. We have defined how it will further cleave the world’s nations into at least two major geopolitical blocs with limited commercial and financial ties. We have… Read More »