Research & News
Daily Comment (April 28, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a deep dive into the GDP data and why we believe that the economy may still be headed for a recession. Next, we give our thoughts on the Bank of Japan’s recent policy decision. Lastly, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the positive news regarding Big Tech and why it may not relieve concerns about a possible downturn. Next, we discuss the controversy regarding regional banks and the Federal Reserve’s new lending facility. Lastly,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping two weeks ago, oil prices have filled the gap on worries about the global economy. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.1 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 1.0 mb, putting the total draw at… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! It’s a mixed market this morning after a rough day yesterday. The dollar and interest rates are lower, while S&P futures were higher but have seen gains erode as the morning wears on. In today’s Comment, we open with President… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a leading global investor’s view on the economic implications of climate change and the world’s responses to it (spoiler: the result is more inflation). We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new data showing how China’s post-pandemic economic reopening is boosting its imports from other countries, including Australia. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Fed’s Employment Surprise (April 24, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF This is the tightest labor market for Black Americans in U.S. history. The Black unemployment rate fell to an all-time low in March unsurpassed since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began a separate calculation for Black workers in 1972. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate for Black Americans… Read More »