Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (January 23, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF When times are tough, you discover who your real friends are, just ask the European Union. From 1860 to 1945, Germany struggled to keep the peace with its neighbors. Commodity-deprived and lacking natural barriers, Germany has sought to impose its will throughout Europe to protect itself from being invaded or cut… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast contains a dynamic economic environment comprising both a normal recession and ensuing recovery. Upon signs of economic fragility, we expect the Fed to suspend its current assertive drive to quell inflation, with the likelihood that policymakers will cease their balance sheet reduction but will not… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are trying to base but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 8.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged, the first time since… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF A new year is underway, and we wish you and yours all the best in 2023! The stock market certainly seems to be optimistic about the new year: the S&P 500 is up 4.1% through its first full two weeks of 2023 and it’s up 14.5% from the 52-week low… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Master of Surprise (January 17, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be delayed until Friday, January 20.] They don’t call Haruhiko Kuroda the “Master of Surprise” for nothing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor lifted the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) by 25 bps last month. The bank… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 12, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth, although there is some evidence that prices may be basing between $72 and $82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories jumped 19.0 mb compared to a 3.0 mb draw forecast. … Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (January 9, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In mid-2022, we published a report showing that as the United States begins to step back from its traditional role as the global hegemon, the world is fracturing into relatively separate geopolitical and economic blocs. Our study looked at almost 200 countries around the world and aimed to objectively predict… Read More »
2023 Outlook: A Recession Year (December 21, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary of Expectations: A recession is highly probable in 2023. Our base case is a garden-variety recession. Three factors could trigger a deep recession: a. Falling nominal home prices; b. A financial crisis; c. A geopolitical event One factor that could mitigate the downturn… Read More »