Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (May 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Although prices have bounced to return to the lower end of the $84/$72 trading range, recession fears continue to dominate sentiment. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 3.0 mb compared to the forecast draw of 2.5 mb. The SPR fell 2.9 mb, putting… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Why We Are Keeping Duration Short (May 8, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Financial markets are complicated, and when faced with complication, there is an incentive to simplify. This simplification process takes on several forms, including narratives, bromides, adages, etc. Even the modeling process is a form of simplification. Sayings like “don’t fight the Fed” or “cash is trash” are often… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 4, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Recession fears are gripping the oil market, sending prices toward lows last seen in March. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.3 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 2.0 mb, putting the total draw at 3.3 mb.… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente (May 1, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF In early March, China brokered a thaw between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The two countries have been at odds for decades, even before the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Essentially, both nations believe themselves to be the rightful leader of the region. The nations had been allied during… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping two weeks ago, oil prices have filled the gap on worries about the global economy. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.1 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 1.0 mb, putting the total draw at… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »