Research & News
Daily Comment (July 25, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where all signs point to Ukraine launching a significant counteroffensive in its southern region around the occupied city of Kherson. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Puzzle of the Labor Force (July 25, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the June 27 report, we discussed the idea that the FOMC may focus on reducing job openings rather than raising the unemployment rate as a way to ease labor-market tightness. The consensus from the establishment survey portion of the June payroll report, which questions employers, was that… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment will begin with a discussion on Thursday’s ECB announcement and what it could mean for markets in the future. Next, we examine Russia’s notable military slowdown in Ukraine and other developments in the war. The report concludes with various international… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about the European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps. Next, we examine changes in governments in the U.K. and Italy, followed by an update on the Russia-Ukraine war. The report ends with a… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears that oil prices are settling into a broad trading range between $125 and $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 0.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.0 mb, meaning the net draw was 5.5… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF The stock and bond markets continue to act as if a recession is imminent. “Why might a recession come upon us?” you might ask. “Isn’t the unemployment rate very low?” Yes, it is. While rising inflation has caused folks to defer purchases, the economy is still doing rather well. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war. Both sides in the war appear to be ramping up their attacks again, but the key developments today revolve around Europe’s intensifying efforts to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Global growth is clearly slowing and the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next year is significantly elevated. The Fed is continuing its aggressive attack on inflation through rapid increases in the fed funds rate and accelerating its balance sheet reduction. Economic data from overseas… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including further evidence that Russia’s aggression has sparked a major, long-lasting increase in global defense spending. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential… Read More »