Research & News
Daily Comment (August 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment is split into two sections. In the first half, we explain why speculation about a Fed pivot is premature. We briefly summarize the meeting minutes, show the market’s reaction, and discuss how the strong jobs market will affect the central… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 18, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.1 mb compared to a 0.3 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 10.2 mb.… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the latest on how the conflict is driving up global energy prices. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where the Russians continue to face troop constraints and the Ukrainians continue to find success in attacking Russian troop concentrations and logistical nodes. We next review a wide range of other… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (August 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Soon after founding Confluence Investment Management, we formulated a position that the U.S. was in the early stages of ending its hegemonic role. We postulated that this event would have a profound effect on the domestic and global economy, and, consequently, financial markets. In traveling around the country discussing this… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where the disposition of forces has changed relatively little in recent days. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 12, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Today’s Comment starts with a discussion of tensions in Asia and how they could impact global supply chains. Next, we review the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and its effects on the global economy. Finally, we conclude with our thoughts… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment is divided into two main sections, starting with reactions from the market and the Fed to the latest CPI data. We include our thoughts on whether the Fed will pivot and why we are not convinced that inflation… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 11, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices have broken support but appear to be basing around $88 per barrel. Crude oil inventories rose 5.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.3 mb, meaning the net build was 0.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil… Read More »