Research & News
Daily Comment (January 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big news item over the long weekend was U.K. PM May’s indication that she is leaning toward what is being called a “hard Brexit.” In general, a “soft Brexit” would mean the U.K. leaves the EU but the terms are such that not… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday the 13th! Outside of the Chinese trade data (see below), there wasn’t a lot of news. The number from China came in a bit soft as exports fell 6.1% from last year in USD terms. For China, the weaker trade data… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 13, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we reviewed Sebastian Mallaby’s recent biography of Alan Greenspan.[1] This week, we will focus on the issue of financial crises and financial stability. As noted in last week’s review, the financial system has evolved from a disjointed and diffuse system where banks could not establish themselves across state lines to… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The primary market theme this morning appears to be a broad reversal of the so-called “Trump trades” that have dominated the markets since the election. We are seeing weaker equities globally and the dollar is weaker, while Treasuries and gold are doing better. There… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of political and geopolitical news overnight. The most widely covered were reports that the Russians have compromising information about Donald Trump. The 32-page report, published last night by Buzzfeed, makes a series of allegations, suggesting that the president-elect engaged in… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] China reported its producer prices (see below). China’s PPI has been rising, suggesting growing inflation pressures in the country. Over the past year, producer prices have been rising rapidly in China after more than two years of producer price deflation. The combination of monetary… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part I (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Part II of this report will be published on January 23.) One of the key elements of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power. Ideally, this means a potential hegemon needs local security. In other words, a nation that faces significant proximate… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a rather quiet weekend. We are seeing a drop in oil prices this morning attributed to reports that production in Northern Iraq, which is under Kurdish control, may be rising. It was never certain whether the Kurds would cooperate and the worry… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the holiday, I had the pleasure of reading Sebastian Mallaby’s recent biography of Alan Greenspan.[1] The book was thoroughly researched and well-written, and I recommend it to our readers, albeit with fair warning—it’s long and the endnotes are critical to fully understanding the points of the work. Here are the key… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment data day! We have the details below but, in general, the data was mostly in line with expectations. We did see a bit of wage growth which has been bearish for bonds but supportive for the dollar. U.S. crude oil inventories fell… Read More »