Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 14, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Given continued sluggish economic growth and fears that monetary policy has reached the point where it can no longer stimulate growth, a renewed attention has been brought to discretionary fiscal policy. In the 1970s, discretionary fiscal policy fell out of favor due to a number of shortcomings: Public investment, if needed, should… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are trending higher this morning; the rise is being attributed to inflation running a bit higher than expected in China (see below), reducing the issue of deflation. China’s practice of exporting deflation has been a concern for some time, but mildly positive inflation… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes did have some interesting information but no real surprises. It confirmed what the dissents and the dots chart indicated—the FOMC is divided on policy. The hawks are concerned that waiting too long to raise rates could lead to an overheating economy and force… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight was that PM May will allow Parliament to debate on her plan to exit the EU. The GBP rallied strongly on the reports. However, there is nothing to suggest that she is planning to let the legislature vote on Brexit. There is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading higher by 0.4% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 1.7% from the prior close. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai Composite moving up by 0.6%… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part II (October 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, in Part I of this study, we examined the four imperatives of American policy with an elaboration of each one. This week, we will discuss why each is important. We will examine why there has been a “drift” in American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This drift… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading higher by 0.7% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 0.05% from the prior close. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai Composite moving up by 1.5%… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading lower by 0.5% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 0.3% from the prior close. Chinese markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday. U.S. equity futures… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 7, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections about a month away, we are fielding an increasing number of questions about the market impact of the result. Although some market commentators are raising concerns about a Trump victory, so far, market data doesn’t seem to suggest a high level of correlation. This chart shows Donald Trump’s average… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The IMF meetings are being held in Washington this weekend. We would not expect anything too earthshattering out of these discussions. However, the organization has calculated an interesting bit of data—the IMF estimates that the world has $152 trillion of debt, about twice the size of… Read More »