Research & News
Daily Comment (June 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Tensions remain high with Iran, and protests expanded in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, it’s central bank week, with the Federal Reserve as the headliner. Here is what we are watching today: Iran: Hawks are calling for military strikes against Iran. However, there is no… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 14, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Establishing when “the” yield curve inverts is a bit of guesswork as there are a plethora of permutations one can use to calculate the spread. One yield curve we like is the same one the Conference Board uses in its index of Leading Economic Indicators, namely, the 10-year T-note less fed funds… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Flag Day! Tensions remain high with Iran and protests continue in Hong Kong. Here is what we are watching today: Pompeo blames Iran: Yesterday, we reported that two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. SoS Pompeo has assigned blame to Iran. Pompeo… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning from the new home of the Stanley Cup! Two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman overnight. Large protests continue in Hong Kong. Here is what we are watching today: Tanker attacks: Two oil tankers, one licensed in the Marshall Islands… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Large protests hit Hong Kong overnight. It’s CPI day today! We cover the data below but, in general, price pressures remain subdued. Here is what we are watching today: Hong Kong: Widespread protests rocked Hong Kong overnight. The protestors oppose a new extradition… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Unlike what we have had for the past couple of weeks, it’s a relatively quiet news day. Here is what we are watching: A deal with Mexico: As news spread that the tariffs on Mexico would be rescinded, stories broke that Mexico hadn’t… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Tiananmen (June 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Thirty years ago, on June 4, troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who had been using the space for about two months. The protestors were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details of the incident remain unsettled. … Read More »
Daily Comment (June 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s a risk-on day, with equities higher, and gold and Treasury prices lower. The U.S. and Mexico have a trade deal. The G-20 Finance Ministers’ meeting (the pre-meeting for the leaders’ meeting) didn’t resolve much. Here is what we are watching today: The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 7, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Monetary policymakers are facing divergent trends that complicate future policy actions. Financial markets are signaling that the policy rate needs to be cut immediately. The chart on the left shows the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two-years deferred, from the Eurodollar futures market. Last October, the implied rate was around 3.30%; it has… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below but, in short, the data suggests economic weakness; bonds have rallied, the dollar tanked and equity futures have eased off their highs. Although we don’t expect a Fed rate cut this month, pressure to reduce… Read More »