Research & News
Daily Comment (May 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and welcome back from the long weekend. Although financial markets are mostly steady, there was lots of news over the holiday. Here is what we are watching: European elections: EU elections ended over the weekend and the cross-currents are complicated. Here are the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 24, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee How important have mergers, buybacks, etc. been to equity market performance? Several analysts have attempted to answer this question by focusing on buybacks alone. However, there is a more straightforward method of looking at this question and including all the factors that affect the number of shares available—the index divisor. This chart… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are recovering after a hard break yesterday. PM May is on her way out. There is hope of a break on the China/U.S. trade dispute. Here is what we are watching: Trade: There was mixed news on the trade front. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning. There is a lot of news to digest this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trade wars: There is little evidence that the trade situation in China is improving. If anything, conditions are worsening. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (N.B. We are making a modest change today in this report. Instead of footnoting links to news items, we are moving to using hyperlinks. To see the linked story, simply click the underlined and highlighted item in the report. This is a more “modern” way… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as Huawei (002502, CNY 3.71) gets a reprieve. Political turmoil rises in Europe. Here is what we are watching: Huawei: The Commerce Department announced a reprieve for the Chinese tech company, giving it three months before… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part II (May 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next issue will be published June 3.) In Part I of this report, we provided readers with a short history of Venezuela to bring some context to the current situation. This week, Part II, will examine the attempts by the opposition to oust Maduro, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! U.S. equity futures rolled over in the early morning hours on trade concerns. Tensions with Iran increase. Here is what we are watching: China trade: Positions appear to be hardening, but the tariffs are becoming less of an issue and the restrictions on… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 17, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Foreign exchange economics has become something of a backwater in economic theory. There are four predominant valuation methodologies; if one were any good, the others wouldn’t exist! The four are purchasing power parity, real equilibrium theory, interest rate differentials and productivity equalization (unit labor cost equalization). The general idea is that under… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are down due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Here are the stories we are following: Trade talks on hold: It appears the president’s attempt to bring China back to the negotiating table by targeting one of its key… Read More »