Research & News
Daily Comment (July 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! This Friday is starting with a risk-off tone. Worries about the economy after the rise in claims yesterday and rising tensions with China are affecting sentiment. But the overarching worry is that Congress will fail to deliver another… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the Federal Reserve’s 107-year history, it has used a number of different methods to manage monetary policy. In its early years, it relied on the discount rate and reserve requirement adjustments as policy tools. During WWII, it managed the yield curve to a specific interest rate to support… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Thus far, the year 2020 has not been one most of us would like to repeat. A pandemic, a sharp and deep recession, social distancing, civil unrest, and political uncertainty have left most people, much less investors, with severe anxieties. I’ve mentioned before that a professional investor is, or should… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF U.S. equity markets continue to tick higher, buoyed by expectations of continued stimulus. The stronger EUR is lifting European stocks, while Chinese equities fell on U.S./China tensions. Relations with China continue to deteriorate; that’s our lead-off story this morning. We… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories reversed part of last week’s unexpected draw, with stockpiles rising 4.9 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.8 mb draw. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Global financial markets are facing some headwinds today from new U.S.-China tensions and signs that the negotiations over the next U.S. coronavirus relief bill may be tougher than previously expected. We review all the key news below. United States-China: Following… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect the current U.S. recession to be deep, yet brief, with a long period of recovery and the potential for expansion toward the latter portion of our forecast period. The Federal Reserve has stabilized the financial markets and ensured the continued functioning of the corporate debt market.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF A new Confluence of Ideas podcast episode is available, titled “The 2020 Election: Part 3.” This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and… Read More »