Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part I (July 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On Friday, July 15, reports out of Turkey indicated that unusual troop activity was underway which suggested a coup was in progress. In the U.S., as afternoon turned toward early evening, it was abundantly clear that elements of the Turkish security services were attempting to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As the hours… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 22, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we introduced positions in gold. Although the yellow metal is classified as a commodity, we view it more as a currency, admittedly one that is not backed by liabilities. National fiat currencies are generally created in the credit process and are backed… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2016)
Letter to Investors In my travels around the country this year, meeting with clients and advisors, I’ve been struck by the high level of political passion (both optimistic and pessimistic), similar to what we see both in the political arena and in the media. Inevitably, I’m asked what I think about it all. “Who do… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2016)
The U.S. economy is likely to remain in its low-growth trend and we don’t foresee a recession, given that the Fed has become less inclined to raise rates. Brexit should be largely transitory for Britain, but may reveal a variety of weaknesses within the European Union. The U.S. presidential elections reveal a myriad of changing… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Theresa May (July 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On Monday, July 11, U.K. Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom withdrew from the race for prime minister. The Tories decided to end the leadership contest with Leadsom’s exit, giving the PM job to Theresa May. She officially took over the role on Wednesday, July 13. In this report, we will begin with a discussion… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 15, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the recovery began, we have consistently favored duration in fixed income. Our position has been that growth would remain sluggish in the developed world and global overcapacity would keep inflation contained. The consensus of strategists and economists didn’t support our position. This chart shows the path of the 10-year T-note yield… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Post-Brexit (July 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On June 23rd, voters in the U.K. shocked global markets by voting to leave the EU. In this report, we will examine the various paths the country may take in the coming months with regard to this issue, discuss the political lessons learned and the impact Brexit will have on other European nations. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 8, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the great characteristics about working in financial services is that there are always surprises. Recently, we came across a situation in the S&P earnings data that we had not noticed before. It is well known that earnings have two variations—as reported and operating. As reported earnings include all costs. Thus,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 1, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Brexit situation is dominating the financial news, and rightly so—such events are unusual and their outcomes are usually uncertain. As part of our asset allocation process, we examine these types of issues and adjust our portfolios to account for them. Although our process is cyclical, meaning we pay particular attention to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the… Read More »