Research & News

Daily Comment (April 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Crude prices rebounded yesterday and are up again overnight.  Kuwait announced its plans to expand production back to normal levels despite the worker strike over public sector pay.  Kuwaiti officials indicated that some workers have returned to their positions and that the current inventory levels of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nagorno-Karabakh (April 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady In early April, fighting erupted in the region around Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed area within Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia.  Reporters described the fighting as the worst since the 1994 ceasefire.  This region is considered one of the world’s “frozen conflicts,” experiencing periodic unrest. In this report, we will discuss the history and… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2016)

Economic growth will likely remain slow, but stable. We expect the Fed to proceed gradually in raising rates. The labor market continues to strengthen, with more workers entering the labor force, but wage growth remains weak. We expect domestic growth to be higher and more stable than most foreign economies. Therefore, we maintain a significant… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a news-heavy weekend with numerous major stories and cross currents.  Let’s dive in: Doha was an epic bust: Expectations for the oil producers meeting were rather low going in.  Freezing already high production levels wasn’t going to lower the current supply overhang.  Nevertheless, the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (April 15, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee It is becoming apparent that the FOMC is using something other than the Phillips Curve to manage monetary policy.  The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and the labor markets.  Economists have developed models based on the Phillips Curve to determine what interest rate target the FOMC “should”… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 15, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s shaping up to be a very busy weekend.  In Brazil, the Chamber of Deputies will vote over the next couple of days to decide if the legislature should begin impeachment proceedings.  As we noted earlier this week, Brazilian financial markets have rallied on expectations that… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are modestly higher after a small decline yesterday due to a higher than forecast weekly oil inventory report, which we cover below.  Prices were down until IEA headlines emerged indicating that the OECD’s oil monitoring body is expecting the oil market to balance later… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 13, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are stronger this morning on better than expected trade data out of China.  March exports rose 11.5% from last year.  Last month the same measure fell 25.4%.  However, the data does fluctuate due to the variance in dates of when the Chinese New Year… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 12, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING: IMF CUTS 2016 GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.2% FROM 3.4%.  President Rousseff of Brazil came another step closer to impeachment yesterday as a congressional impeachment committee voted to recommend a Senate trial.  The next step is a vote by the full Chamber of Deputies on… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Intergenerational Forgetfulness (April 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady As the political nominating season in the U.S. wears on, presidential candidates have been making statements about foreign policy that would signal a significant change in direction.  What has been striking about these comments is a seeming ignorance about why current policies are in place and what could occur if these policies… Read More »

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