Research & News
Daily Comment (January 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF The Asset Allocation Weekly is available here. Good morning. Today U.S. equity futures are elevated as investors anticipate more fiscal stimulus. A slowdown in job creation and a Democrat majority in both houses likely supports the case for more expansionary… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Where do we start? Yesterday witnessed violent protests in the legislative buildings in Washington that disrupted the confirmation of the Electoral College vote. We discuss the event below. Equity markets are higher again this morning, with the dollar recovering modestly. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are moving higher on dollar weakness and the recent OPEC+ decision, discussed below. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 8.0 mb, well below the -1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged; there is still 3.1… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with U.S. political news, where the Democrats have won at least one of the two Senate runoff elections in Georgia and hold a small lead in the other. The election results explain much of the market… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with political news; today’s Senate runoff elections in Georgia and tomorrow’s Congressional consideration of the presidential vote could produce short-term market concerns. We next turn to international news, with a focus on China and the global… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday, the first of 2021! We’re back and rested from the holiday break. Equity markets are higher this morning, and commodities are on a tear. The dollar is dropping in the new year, and bitcoin rose… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus developments, where the scary news of a new strain is largely offset by the final Congressional passage of a new pandemic relief bill. We next turn to international news, including a reminder… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. It’s a risk-off day—equity markets are sharply lower on the news of a new strain of COVID-19. We are seeing the usual price action in a risk-off situation. Treasury yields are lower, equity values are down, and the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! Although Congress remains in session and Brexit could interfere with the MP’s Christmas, the rest of the world is winding down for the holidays. U.S. equity futures are mostly steady this morning. One thing to… Read More »