Research & News
Daily Comment (January 7, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! We begin today’s report with news from the Fed followed by China-related stories, including the latest on the real estate situation. Next is an update on the protests in Kazakhstan and various other international news. We conclude with our pandemic… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report begins with U.S. economic and policy news followed by China-related stories. International news is next, and we end with our pandemic coverage. Economics and policy: The Federal Reserve released its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Overall, the report confirmed… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 6, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to a 3.4 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb, meaning the net draw was 3.5 mb. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today focuses on international news, including a U.S. victory in its dairy trade dispute with Canada and the latest OPEC+ decision on oil supplies. We also cover several developments related to China’s real estate and technology sectors and a new… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF We open today’s Comment with a couple of U.S.-related developments, including news that a Russian recently extradited from Switzerland on insider-trading charges may actually have information on the Russian government’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. We next review a range… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a major new U.S. regulatory initiative and further indications the U.S. and its NATO allies are trying to scare off Russia from any invasion of Ukraine. We next turn to a range of other… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 17, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Good morning! U.S. equity futures… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – What’s Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (December 17, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A note to readers: The Asset Allocation Weekly will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and return as a bi-weekly publication, now on Mondays, beginning January 10, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »
2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails (December 16, 2021)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary: We don’t expect a recession in 2022. Real GDP growth will range between 3.0% to 3.5%. Inflation remains elevated, though price pressures will likely subside in H2 2022. We expect the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, to… Read More »