Research & News
Keller Quarterly (October 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Before I begin to tap on the keyboard and write these quarterly letters, I always pick up the last few letters to remind myself what I recently wrote. I don’t want to appear ignorant of past comments, nor do I want to ignore a prognostication that proved to be incorrect.… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Comments will be brief today due to a mix-up on coverage (blame Bill—senior moment!). Risk markets are mostly marking time this morning. China and property taxes: As we have been reporting at length recently, the real estate sector… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with several global issues, ranging from magnesium supply shortages that could further crimp automobile output to a new pilot project on central bank digital currencies in France. We next review the latest real estate developer… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Thucydides (October 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF The Thucydides Trap is an idea that comes from the ancient Greek historian of the same name who described a situation where the incumbent superpower of the time, Sparta, was faced with an insurgent power, Athens. The two powers ended up in a ruinous war. Thucydides postulated that when an… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Risk markets are lower this morning as Treasury yields rise. Our coverage begins with China news this morning, including comments on weak Q3 GDP. Economics and policy are next, where we look at the progress… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! U.S. equity futures are pointing higher this morning. Today’s report begins with our thoughts on EU and U.K. trade relations. Afterward, we review international news followed by U.S. economics and policy coverage. China news is next, and we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Globalization Isn’t What It Used to Be (October 15, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep…But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 15, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF [N.B. Today’s report was delayed one day due to the Columbus/Indigenous Day holiday.] Prices have moved above $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 6.1 mb compared to the 1.1 build forecast. The SPR declined 0.8 mb, meaning the net draw was… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Bank earnings reports are giving a bullish tone to the equity markets this morning. Our coverage begins with the Federal Reserve; the FOMC released its minutes yesterday. Economics and policy come next. Inflation worries are rising. Crypto news… Read More »