Quarterly Energy Comment (Archive)

Quarterly Energy Comment (December 17, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held mostly within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded.  Rising tensions with Iran added to… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (August 27, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded.  Rising tensions with Iran added to the… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (March 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have been volatile over the past few months. In October, OPEC producers increased output in anticipation of U.S. sanctions on Iran.  However, the Trump administration granted more waivers for Iranian exports than anticipated, leading to more oil supply.  As the above chart shows, prices plunged, falling from $78… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (March 13, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past quarter, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $56 to a high of $66 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline and solid global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but have clearly declined from last year’s peak. View… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (December 15, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have recovered strongly from the mid-summer lows.  It appears we are establishing a new trading range between $55 and $60 per barrel. This recovery was mostly caused by a steady decline in U.S. domestic crude oil inventories, a weak dollar and OPEC output discipline.  We expect OPEC to… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (July 18, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices peaked in March around $55 per barrel.  There have been a series of lower highs and lower lows, as shown by the lines on the chart. This obvious downtrend has led to a general bearish tone to the market.  We don’t necessarily share that level of pessimism; as… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (April 11, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Since December, oil prices have been ranging between $48 and $55 per barrel. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated, reaching historic highs. In the above charts, the one on the left shows the long-term inventory situation, while the chart on the right shows a 12-year history.  Normal inventories would… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (December 30, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have broken above their $44 to $52 per barrel trading range in the wake of the recent OPEC output agreement. OPEC In a reversal of recent policy, Saudi Arabia spearheaded an agreement to cut oil production.  OPEC has agreed to cut production by about 1.3 mbpd and select… Read More »

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