Daily Comment

Daily Comment (May 2, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] May Day is being celebrated in much of the world today.  This holiday is “Labor Day” for most of the rest of the world.  Most notably, British markets are closed today. The global PMI data is out (see below).  The numbers today are the official ones… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 29, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The primary feature of today’s financial markets is dollar weakness. (Source:  Bloomberg) This chart shows the CME dollar index, which is comprised of about 56% EUR and correlates at nearly +80% with the EUR/USD exchange rate.  The dollar began to rally in mid-2014 as the U.S.… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 28, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The market-making news overnight was that the BOJ announced no new policy measures at its meeting.  Although this was mostly anticipated, there were hopes that Governor Kuroda would offer at least some support for the economy.  Instead, he suggested he is taking a “wait and see”… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s FOMC Day!  As we noted earlier this week, we don’t expect any major news today.  The key focus will be on the idea of “balance of risks.”  The Fed often puts a note in the statement about the balance of risks.  In general, it leans… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting starts today; although there are no expectations of a change in policy at this meeting, we will be closely watching the balance of risks statement.  For the past few meetings, the Fed has mostly refused to comment on the balance of risks, but… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a remarkably quiet weekend and that pattern has continued into this morning.  Risk markets are easing this morning in what looks more like tactical profit taking.  The BOJ and Fed both meet this week, with the former finishing its meeting on Thursday and the… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Japanese risk markets traded higher on reports that the BOJ may consider negative rate loan programs for banks, making the lending facility more attractive.  Under the program, the BOJ would pay banks to borrow under certain conditions.  The BOJ is scheduled to meet next week and… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The ECB maintained its interest rates at historic lows and did not change the size of its QE program.  The Eurozone central bank left its benchmark rate at 0.00%, the deposit rate at -0.40%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25% and its QE amount at €80… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 20, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chinese risk markets traded lower overnight as Chinese officials indicated that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to reduce stimulus over the coming year due to improving economic data.  While the PBOC has not released an official statement, at least two government sources have… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Crude prices rebounded yesterday and are up again overnight.  Kuwait announced its plans to expand production back to normal levels despite the worker strike over public sector pay.  Kuwaiti officials indicated that some workers have returned to their positions and that the current inventory levels of… Read More »

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