Daily Comment

Daily Comment (August 3, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the wake of the BOJ and Abe disappointment yesterday, we have been observing a steady backup of long duration yields.  So far, this isn’t anything too serious, but the market narrative behind it is important.  There is a growing concern that BOJ monetary policy may… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 2, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from Japan as PM Abe’s cabinet approved the ¥28 trillion stimulus package.  Actual new spending is only about a quarter of the headline number.  The JPY appreciated on the news and the JGB saw a modest uptick in yields.  Overall, the… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s global PMI day today.  As we note below, most of the data came in around expectations.  Australia was unusually robust while the U.K. was rather weak.  Overall, the data suggests a global economy that is mostly steady. We had two fed officials speak over the… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 29, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The BOJ disappointed the financial markets.  Expectations for a larger stimulus package, maybe even helicopter money, was hoped for.  Instead, the BOJ offered to boost ETF purchases and indicated it will perform a study of its stimulus programs, hinting perhaps that more could come later… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 28, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC statement was generally as expected.   The committee acknowledged the economy improved from their last meeting.  Labor markets are better and household spending is robust.  On the other hand, business investment remains sluggish.  Overall, the FOMC indicates that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting concludes today.  Expectations are very low for this meeting although we would not be surprised to see the statement take on a more hawkish tone.  Markets are not expecting the FOMC to move higher this year; in fact, the fed funds futures don’t… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting begins today and concludes tomorrow.  As we noted yesterday, we expect the Fed to try to inject expectations of potential tightening.  We also expect the FOMC to fail on this goal.  The financial markets are quite sure the Fed won’t move until next… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another mostly quiet night.  We did see European equities lift on better economic sentiment data (see below).  The G-20 meeting ended with a mostly banal communiqué.  There was some discussion of fiscal policy by the group.  However, the G-20 structure is so unwieldy that… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GOP convention wrapped up last night; the Democrats hold theirs next week.  Financial markets are very quiet this morning, typical of the “dog days” of summer.  There were two items of note.  First, the flash PMI data from the U.K. was quite weak, with the… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The JPY rose strongly overnight after media reports quoted BOJ Governor Kuroda as saying that helicopter money was not being considered and would never be implemented.  This comment came as a surprise as the financial markets have been steadily discounting some sort of action from the… Read More »

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