Daily Comment
Daily Comment (October 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we discuss below in detail, Q3 GDP rose 2.9%, exceeding estimates of 2.6%. The quick analysis of the data shows that two components were key to the report. First, investment rebounded but mostly due to a rebuild in inventories. The other major surprise… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Belgian political leaders were able to overcome Walloon’s opposition to the free trade deal with Canada and so, at the deadline, it looks like the agreement will be approved, assuming none of the other 27 nations decide to oppose the deal, too. Most of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are weaker this morning off some disappointing earnings reports. This shift in sentiment is routine during earnings season. It does appear that the EU-Canadian free trade deal may be back on track as the Walloons are reportedly moderating their opposition.[1] Still,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overnight news flow was unusually low. Earnings are generally coming in favorably as energy companies recover. Equity markets remain relatively firm. The new money market rules officially went into effect on Oct. 14th and, now that they are in place, the short-term money markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good ISM data from Europe (see below) lifted global equity markets. Mergers are another factor affecting financial markets, with the biggest being Time Warner (89.48, +6.84) and ATT (37.49, -1.15). This one is getting lots of political attention. Donald Trump has already indicated that his administration… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The dollar is higher this morning on speculation that the Fed interest rate policy will diverge from the easy monetary policies implemented in Europe and Asia. The dollar rose yesterday and the euro fell as investors interpreted ECB President Draghi’s comments as an indication that stimulus… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] ECB President Mario Draghi is giving his press conference as we write this. The ECB maintained its benchmark lending rate at zero, the deposit rate at -0.4% and the asset purchases at €80 bn a month. Draghi said that the central bank expects interest rates to… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a relatively quiet morning on the macro front. Chinese data came in on forecast to slightly weaker than expected. While GDP rose 6.7% annually, as expected, industrial production rose 6.1% annually, weaker than expected. Yesterday afternoon, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) net monthly flows report… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are enjoying a strong morning as financial markets prepare for a modest credit tightening in December. Chair Yellen’s recent comments about allowing the economy to run hot were somewhat offset by Vice Chair Fischer yesterday when he cautioned against letting the economy and inflation… Read More »