Daily Comment
Daily Comment (May 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment data Friday! We will update all the numbers below but the short summary is that the data was a bit soft. Non-farm payrolls disappointed, and the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force contracted less than employment did in the household survey. Global… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices moved higher overnight on the Canadian oil sands wildfire and escalation of fighting in Libya, both leading to speculation of supply contraction. The Fort McMurray oil sands wildfire has spread to five times its initial size, leading to the evacuation of the entire town… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We will keep our opening comments short as quite a few economic indicators were released this morning. Risk markets are trading lower this morning, with equities lower globally and Treasuries trading higher. As the earnings season continues, equity fundamentals have not changed much, thus the pullback… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a rally in risk assets yesterday, we are seeing a reversal this morning. Although China’s official PMI data came in a bit soft (see below), we suspect the real story continues to come from the forex markets. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] May Day is being celebrated in much of the world today. This holiday is “Labor Day” for most of the rest of the world. Most notably, British markets are closed today. The global PMI data is out (see below). The numbers today are the official ones… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 29, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The primary feature of today’s financial markets is dollar weakness. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the CME dollar index, which is comprised of about 56% EUR and correlates at nearly +80% with the EUR/USD exchange rate. The dollar began to rally in mid-2014 as the U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The market-making news overnight was that the BOJ announced no new policy measures at its meeting. Although this was mostly anticipated, there were hopes that Governor Kuroda would offer at least some support for the economy. Instead, he suggested he is taking a “wait and see”… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s FOMC Day! As we noted earlier this week, we don’t expect any major news today. The key focus will be on the idea of “balance of risks.” The Fed often puts a note in the statement about the balance of risks. In general, it leans… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting starts today; although there are no expectations of a change in policy at this meeting, we will be closely watching the balance of risks statement. For the past few meetings, the Fed has mostly refused to comment on the balance of risks, but… Read More »