Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (August 15, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF

Soon after founding Confluence Investment Management, we formulated a position that the U.S. was in the early stages of ending its hegemonic role.  We postulated that this event would have a profound effect on the domestic and global economy, and, consequently, financial markets.  In traveling around the country discussing this idea, we[1] were often asked, “When are you going to write a book about this?”  It seemed like something we should do, although finding time while meeting a tight publication schedule and trying to run a business made it challenging.  When Mark and I discussed the idea of a book, we wanted it to cover the material in an accessible manner.

And then the idea died…because Peter Zeihan beat us to it.  His 2014 book The Accidental Superpower hit all the themes we wanted to cover and did so in a manner that we probably couldn’t improve upon.  Zeihan has worked for the State Department and other think tanks.  I saw his work with Stratfor when he was with that private intelligence firm, and he now runs his own consulting firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics.  He frequently sends out short videos on various topics; you can join his mailing list here.  Since The Accidental Superpower, he has written three books, the most recent of which was published in July and is the topic of this week’s report.

In this report, we will review Zeihan’s new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, briefly discussing its content, the major insights, and the overall strengths and weaknesses of his argument.  We will conclude with market ramifications.

View the full report

[1] Mark Keller (Confluence CEO/CIO) and me.

Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google