Research & News
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $95 per barrel and are threatening the $100 per barrel level. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mb compared to a 1.9 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 1.6 mb. In… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (February 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google For the past two months, Russia has been mobilizing around Ukraine, leading to fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The U.S. has warned Russia against… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 10, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After breaking above $90 per barrel late last week, prices have modestly retreated. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 4.8 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.2 mb. In the details,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (February 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward $1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between $1,700 and $1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.0 mb compared to a 1.8 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (January 31, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google Over the past month, unrest has developed in Kazakhstan. The unrest began as protests against rising fuel prices, but it soon blossomed into broader, more widespread,… Read More »