Research & News
Daily Comment (February 25, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will keep our focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are seeing a modest “risk-on” this morning due to reports that Russia is open to talks on Ukraine. We have our doubts about Moscow’s sincerity, but the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $100 per barrel on news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.4 mb, meaning the net build was 2.1 mb.… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 24, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report will focus primarily on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On this day of global crisis, we at Confluence express our gratitude to the members of the U.S. military and intelligence community who are standing by to serve and… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 23, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, where the U.S. and other Western nations have now imposed sanctions on Russia for its deployment of troops into the Donbas region. Those sanctions are seen by many observers to be… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 22, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF On this historic day, as the post-Cold War global order hangs in the balance, our Comment opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Events on the ground are developing rapidly, but as of this writing, the key developments are that President… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with an update on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, where most of the optimism generated earlier in the week has now dissipated. Government officials and investors seem increasingly resigned to the possibility of war, as reflected in yesterday’s activity… Read More »