Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Believe It or Not, Fiscal Policy Is Tightening (March 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. economy and government economic policies have many moving parts, but investors often latch onto just one or two indicators or policy initiatives to gauge where asset prices are heading. These days, their focus has been on consumer price inflation and the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are moving sharply higher as sanctions expand against Russia. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 2.6 mb compared to a 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.4 mb, meaning the net build was 5.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Experiment (February 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google The Turkish economy is being roiled by spiking inflation and a sharp decline in the Turkish lira (TRY). The orthodox response to such a macroeconomic crisis is austerity. Fiscal and… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $100 per barrel on news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.4 mb, meaning the net build was 2.1 mb.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »