Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Bremmer’s Choices (August 31, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we wrote our first formal book review as a Weekly Geopolitical Report. The book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, is a recently published book by Ian Bremmer in which he discusses three models for American foreign policy. In our closing comments last week, we promised to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Book Review: Superpower (August 24, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady This is the first formal book review we have conducted as a Weekly Geopolitical Report, although we have leaned heavily on books or papers for much of the content in other reports. We believe this book is important because of its message and due to the proximity to the 2016 elections. Our… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Donald and Bernie (August 17, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In the spring of 2014, we wrote a series of Weekly Geopolitical Reports that looked at the 2016 elections. In these reports, we described the economic and political environment that had the potential to make the 2016 election historically important. The emergence and remarkable staying power of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey’s Predicament (August 10, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In 2013, we wrote a WGR that looked at Turkey’s likely rise to regional hegemon status. In that report, we made the case that Turkey was well positioned to return to its historic status as a dominant regional power. This remains our view over the next few decades. However, in the near… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Iran Deal (August 3, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, the P5+1[1] and Iran concluded negotiations on a nuclear deal. In this report, we will offer some reflections on the agreement, including why it occurred, and the major reason why the U.S. negotiated this agreement and the underlying issues. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. View the full report… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Laudato Sí (July 27, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Sí. In this report, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Imperial Germany (July 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool. In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone. Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis. As always, we will… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2015)
Significant disruptions or financial stress from Greece’s debt problems appear to have been avoided, in the near term. However, structural problems that led to the Greek crisis have yet to be properly addressed and we expect the issue to emerge again in the future. It will be important to monitor how Greek creditors and other… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greek Games: An Update (July 13, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On Sunday, July 5th, Greeks voted in a special referendum to decide whether to accept the troika’s most recent proposal to end the current debt and financial crisis. Voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected the EU’s offer. Since the vote, EU and Greek officials have been meeting, trying to determine the path forward. … Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2015)
Letter to Investors I once had a seventh grade teacher tell my class how lucky we were to be citizens of the United States. Of course, we all took it for granted. We didn’t know anything different…but she did. You see, Mrs. Danishevsky, who taught us Russian, had emigrated from the Soviet Union and knew… Read More »