Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Intergenerational Forgetfulness (April 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady As the political nominating season in the U.S. wears on, presidential candidates have been making statements about foreign policy that would signal a significant change in direction. What has been striking about these comments is a seeming ignorance about why current policies are in place and what could occur if these policies… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] German 10-year sovereign yields are down to 11 bps this morning. Falling German yields are translating into low U.S. Treasury yields. (Source: Bloomberg) Since mid-2013, when Chairman Bernanke unveiled tapering, the two yields have been closely linked. Interestingly enough, the spread between these rates has been… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 8, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of our key investment decisions in terms of asset allocation has been to avoid emerging markets. There are primarily two reasons for this call. First, as the U.S. pulls back from its superpower position, the emerging world, which tends to be more dependent on exports for economic development, faces two significant… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The WTO released its global trade data for 2015 yesterday along with its forecasts for this year and next. The sum of imports and exports rose 2.8% last year and is expected to rise at the same pace this year, rising to 3.6% in 2017. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday’s FOMC minutes generally confirmed what we have been hearing from committee members over the past few weeks, namely, that international concerns are worrying members and keeping policy steady. Of the 17 members on the committee, eight viewed the risks to be shifting toward slower growth,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session. Oil prices jumped on reports from the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly oil storage data, which showed an unexpected draw in stockpiles. The API data can diverge from the official DOE data, which we receive at 10:30 EDT today. A… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing weaker equity markets this morning with little news flow. The Treasury has announced new inversion rules that will likely discourage some of the merger activity. The Panama papers are also sowing fear in the financial markets. However, the most likely reason for the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise (April 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady We are currently experiencing one of the most contentious primary election seasons in at least 35 years. Candidates have made numerous incendiary statements about foreign policy that offer insights into their thinking. However, without a paradigm, it can be difficult for investors to determine what foreign policy decisions a candidate is likely… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There wasn’t too much market news overnight as several Asian markets were closed for holiday. However, there were several major news splashes from WikiLeaks, one of which published a massive database from the offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca. A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, obtained the data… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 1, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent GDP report, corporate profits plunged. The overall decline in profits was $153 bn in Q4, although some of this drop was due to an $83 bn settlement that BP had with the government over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. We have been noting for some time… Read More »