Research & News
2018 Outlook (November 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: Our baseline forecast for 2018 calls for no recession and real GDP growth of 2.25%, with faster growth in H1. Inflation should remain low, with the PCE staying under 2.0%. Labor markets will remain tight and wage growth will be constrained due to low inflation expectations.… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of overnight news, but below are the stories we are following today: Trade war with China? The U.S. has formally declined China’s bid to be treated as a market economy within the World Trade Organization (WTO). The move will likely heighten tensions… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Although yesterday was a news-heavy day, financial markets are relatively calm following North Korea’s missile launch and an upward revision to GDP. Below are the stories we are following: Nuclear North Korea: Yesterday, North Korea had its most successful missile launch and says it is capable… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets are relatively quiet this morning. We are watching the following news events: Senate tax bill: Today, the Senate’s tax reform bill awaits approval from the Senate Budget Committee. Although approval from the committee is usually a formality, there is growing speculation that the bill… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets are a bit weaker this morning—equities are signaling a softer open, while Treasuries have slightly rebounded. This morning we are focused on the following issues. Grand coalition in Germany? In order to form a government, the CDU has agreed to pursue a grand coalition… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] As a reminder, we will not publish the Daily Comment this Friday, November 24. Although financial markets are quiet, there was a good bit of news. Here’s what we are watching: Yield curve flattening: Yesterday, the U.S. yield curve flattened to its lowest point since November… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Thanksgiving week! We want to pass along a heads up that the Daily Comment will not be published this Friday, November 24. Although financial markets are quiet, there was a good bit of news. Here’s what we are watching: Merkel leans toward new elections: Yesterday,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Moving Fast and Breaking Things: Mohammad bin Salman, Part I (November 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B.: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next edition of this report will be published December 4.) Last summer, King Salman surprised the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by demoting Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef and replacing him with one of the king’s sons, Mohammad bin Salman (MbS).[1] In the months preceding the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday and Happy Thanksgiving week! We want to pass along a heads up that the Daily Comment will not be published this Friday, November 24. Here’s what’s going on this morning: Coalition talks collapse: Chancellor Merkel has been unable to pull together a coalition consisting… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 17, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee [Ed note: We will not publish an Asset Allocation Weekly Comment the week of November 24. The next comment will be published December 1.] Over the past three weeks, we have seen a rise in the yields on high-yield bonds. The Merrill Lynch High Yield bond effective index is up 40 bps… Read More »