Research & News

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Storm Warning (September 6, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Throughout this year, there has been much talk (and confusion) about recession.  Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the formal arbiter of recession.  This private group of economists assesses when there is a broad-based decline in economic activity and when that activity recovers.  It then tells… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 2, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Note: the markets and our office are closed on Monday, September 5, in observance of the Labor Day holiday. Our next report will be published on Tuesday, September 6. Today’s Comment begins with a focus on how hawkish Fed policy has pushed… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 1, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion of the September effect. Next, we review possible headwinds in Europe. We end the report by examining the rivalry between the West, Russia, and China. Wait, It Gets Worse? September is generally the worst… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (September 1, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (The Weekly Energy Update will not be published next week.  The report will return on September 15th) Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.3 mb compared to… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 31, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the latest on Ukraine’s new counteroffensive to push the Russians out of the southern city of Kherson.  We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 30, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where the key news is Ukraine’s official announcement that it has launched its long-awaited counteroffensive to retake the southern city of Kherson from its Russian occupiers.  We next review a wide… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (August 29, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 29, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where a key focus is now on the risks to a major nuclear energy plant in eastern Ukraine.  We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 26, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment examines why Thursday’s economic data could encourage the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. Next, we explain how elections in Russia could impact its war with Ukraine. We conclude the report by discussing the U.S.-China rivalry and how… Read More »

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