Research & News
Daily Comment (August 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday, but far from a happy one. Global equity markets are taking a beating while interest rates continue to decline. Geopolitical tensions are rising in several theaters. The U.S. is dealing with two mass shootings. And, the Haj begins today. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 2, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee As wages and other costs rise and pricing power appears constrained, there are reasonable worries about the path of corporate earnings. We use purely top-down analysis to forecast earnings. Essentially, we forecast the percentage of total S&P company earnings relative to GDP. We use the nominal GDP forecast from the Philadelphia FRB’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the snapshot is generally in line with expectations. Payrolls were 164k, nearly bang on forecasts of 165k, although revisions lowered payrolls by a net 32k. The unemployment rate was unchanged… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Markets are dealing with the aftermath of the Fed meeting. China is slow-walking trade. The BOE met today. Osama bin Laden’s son is believed to have died. The MLB trade deadline big winner was Houston, with Atlanta coming in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! The FOMC meeting ends today. North Korea continues to fire off missiles. The baseball trading deadline occurs at 4:00 EDT today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The Fed: Yesterday, we noted the scenarios for today’s monetary policy. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! The FOMC meeting begins today. The GBP continues its slide. Here are the details: The Fed: Although there is almost no chance the Fed won’t cut by 25 bps tomorrow, we are watching for two items. First, Powell’s language, especially… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part II (July 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Economic Triangle: Part II Last week, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand. From there, we examined the weakness of supply and demand at the macro level and discussed an alternative model, the Economic… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s Fed week. The MLB trading deadline is Wednesday. There was unrest around the globe. Here are the details: The Fed: It is all but certain the FOMC will cut rates on Wednesday. Former Chair Janet Yellen came out in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 26, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee How much attention is the FOMC paying to international factors? It appears to be quite a lot. We have documented that the financial markets are clamoring for a rate cut. We have seen some of the more popular yield curves invert and the implied LIBOR rate from the Eurodollar futures market, two… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! As slow as the news is trickling in today, it’s clear that we’re deep into the dog days of summer. Nevertheless, we have seen a few interesting tidbits, like an initial estimate showing moderate economic growth and falling inflation here… Read More »