Research & News
Daily Comment (April 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the beginning of Q2 and April Fools’ Day. Equities are up around the world. Here is what we are watching this morning: China better, but elsewhere struggles: China’s manufacturing PMI data came in better than forecast;[1] the Caixin number for March was 50.8, exceeding… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 29, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Long-dated Treasury bonds have enjoyed a strong rally in recent weeks. Fears about future U.S. economic growth, falling global economic growth and a reversal in monetary policy expectations have all conspired to lower yields. The question now is whether or not yields have fallen more than is justified by the fundamental factors.… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, all! Equity markets are higher on progress being made in U.S./China trade talks. The overnight news was a bit quiet, but here are the stories we are following today: Social media bias: On Thursday, Facebook (FB, $165.55) was accused of violating the Fair… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Opening Day! Even as cool temperatures linger in much of the country, major league baseball opens in the U.S. today, one of the official signs of summer. Here’s something to make you feel older: for the first time in the 21st century, there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are modestly lower in a quiet news environment. The big story remains in the long end of the yield curve as the 10-year T-note yield falls below 2.40%. Here is what we are watching this morning: Why are bonds rallying? We suspect there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are higher in a quiet news environment. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: MPs voted 329/302 to take control of the House of Commons timetable, essentially removing the prime minister from running the process.[1] Although this is no huge shock, it… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part III (March 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part II, we discussed the principles and consequences of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This week’s installment will be devoted to the importance of paradigms. Next week, we will conclude the series with a discussion on the potential flaws of MMT along with market ramifications. The Importance of Paradigms Every major shift in… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities have lifted from their overnight lows on a better than expected German IFO business sentiment index report. Although the Mueller news didn’t have any impact on financial markets, a finding of collusion would have been majorly negative, so that problem has been avoided. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 22, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee One factor we have been tracking is the recent behavior of retail money market funds. We have noted that households began building money market funds about the time that the equity market peaked and U.S. trade policy began to turn toward protectionism. In the coming months, money market funds continued to rise… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equity markets are mixed today following weak manufacturing data in Europe and the president’s hints that a trade deal with China is close to fruition. Below are the stories we are currently monitoring: Brexit extension: On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the… Read More »