Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 6, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the past quarter, emerging market equities have weakened; the primary culprit was a strengthening dollar, although concerns about softer non-U.S. growth likely played a role as well. The dollar’s strength appears to be caused by one of two factors. The first possibility is interest rate differentials, which are partly due to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick read is bullish. The key data point was a huge jump in the labor force, which increased 601k after falling 382k over the past three months. Thus, even with a rise in payrolls,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! Here is what we are watching this morning: On trade, it’s good news and bad news: The good news first…German automakers met with Richard Grenell, the U.S. Ambassador to Germany, and reaffirmed their support for zero tariffs on EU/U.S. auto trade.[1] The German automakers… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a safe and happy Independence Day! The “dog days” of summer officially begin today.[1] It looks like a risk-on day so far. U.S. financial markets close early for the mid-week Independence Day holiday. Equity markets close at… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the first day of Q3! So far, it’s not an auspicious start. We did celebrate “Bobby Bonilla Day” yesterday, one of our favorite holidays.[1] There is lots of news this morning. Let’s dig in: Mexican elections: As expected, Lopez Obrador, otherwise known as AMLO, easily… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 29, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the recent narrowing of the yield curve, we have been receiving a number of questions about the impact of inversion. Defined, yield curve inversion is when short-duration interest rates rise above long-duration interest rates. The yield curve is arguably the single best indicator of recession. Therefore, with various calculations of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday and good riddance to Q2! It’s looking like a risk-on day. Lots of news today. Let’s dig in: EU summit: A deal was struck on immigration and refugees in a nearly all-night session.[1] The agreement says that seaborne migrants will be placed into processing… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As the second quarter winds down, this morning’s news flow is fairly quiet. GDP came in a bit soft (see below). Here is what we are watching this morning: The EU summit: EU leaders are meeting today through the weekend. The primary topic will be immigration… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here we are at mid-week. Financial markets are recovering this morning after a difficult overnight session. Here is what we are watching: Softening on trade? Around 7:35 AM EDT, the White House[1] announced it would not create a new regime to scrutinize Chinese investments and instead… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a rough day yesterday, financial markets are attempting to stabilize this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trouble in Iran: Protests are escalating in Iran. Comments on Twitter suggest there is widespread dissatisfaction with the government. Unconfirmed reports of crowds chanting “Leave Syria, think… Read More »