Research & News
Daily Comment (March 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We switched to daylight savings time on Sunday (a rather barbaric practice). Here is what we are watching this morning: Scrambling on Korea talks: Weekend reporting made it clear that the president agreed to talks on his own without consulting staff. The normal protocol… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor in gauging market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment data Friday! We detail the data below but the quick summary is “shocking.” Wage growth moderated and payrolls came in stronger than expected. In the household survey, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% but that masked massive increases in employment and the labor force. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a torrent of news this week, it’s comparatively quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB meets today and the statement contained a surprise—the central bank has dropped its pledge to expand QE if needed. This announcement signals the beginning of… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There is much to discuss this morning. Let’s get to it: Cohn out: Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council, resigned yesterday evening. Although reports suggest he has been considering the move for a couple of months, the proximate cause was the inability to turn… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Risk markets are higher this morning, building on yesterday’s afternoon recovery. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade wars—the establishment strikes back: They don’t call it the establishment for nothing. The GOP establishment playbook—tax cuts, open trade, deregulation—has always been a less than perfect… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Emperor Xi: Part I (March 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On February 25th, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) announced that it would recommend an end to term limits on the offices of president and vice president. Previously, an officeholder was limited to two five-year terms. We fully expect the recommendation to be approved (recommendations from the Central Committee are… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade wars: As details emerge on how the president decided to recommend across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum, it has become clear it was more of a reaction than a well-thought-out plan. There is no actual… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent rise in long-duration yields has been partially blamed on rising inflation expectations. Although this reason is a possible explanation, the reality is that it’s more likely the fixed income markets are simply adjusting to a faster pace of policy tightening. In this report, we examine the differences between cyclical and… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There is a lot going on this morning. Let’s dive in: Trade wars: President Trump campaigned as a trade warrior, promising tariffs and government intervention to boost manufacturing employment and give hope to his electoral base. However, in his first year of office, if one ignores… Read More »