Research & News
Daily Comment (March 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Framing the Fed: The FOMC meeting begins today. Here we lay out the basic path for monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years deferred, derived from the Eurodollar futures market. Note that the yield has increased dramatically… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The North Korean Summit: Part I (March 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On March 8, officials from South Korea, including Chung Eui-yong, the director of South Korea’s National Security Office, came to Washington to brief U.S. officials on a recent dinner with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea. The dinner was held in Pyongyang at North Korea’s Workers’ Party Headquarters, Kim’s workplace, where Mr.… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We are seeing weaker equity markets and rising Treasury yields this morning. There is a lot going on—let’s dig in: A Brexit deal: Negotiators for the U.K. and EU have announced they mostly have an agreement in place. Although some problems remain unresolved, mostly… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 16, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the fact that the generally strong economy should be supportive for equity markets as economic growth will tend to support earnings. However, the other important element of equity valuation is what multiple investors put on those earnings. The most common valuation metric is the price/earnings ratio (P/E). Our… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here is what we are watching this morning: The shakeup continues: Numerous media sources indicate that Gen. McMasters is on his way out as National Security Director. The most rumored replacement is John Bolton, a well-known hawk. If Bolton does get the job, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the Ides of March! Be careful out there. Markets were very quiet overnight. Here is what we are watching: Trump 2.0: As expected, Larry Kudlow is replacing Gary Cohn as NEC director. This should be a somewhat market supportive appointment. Kudlow isn’t an economic heavyweight;… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here is what we are watching this morning: May responds: The Russians ignored Britain’s deadline so PM May is expelling 23 Russian diplomats, the biggest expulsion since the Cold War. Expect a similar response from Russia. This is an issue that bears watching. We expect that… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (March 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past quarter, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $56 to a high of $66 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline and solid global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but have clearly declined from last year’s peak. View… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] CPI came in on forecast. Financial markets were fearing faster inflation and so we are seeing the dollar ease and equities rally on the news. Here is what we are watching this morning: NEC Chair: Shahira Knight has signaled she doesn’t want the job, and Chris… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Emperor Xi: Part II (March 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. We examined President Xi’s actions in his first term to consolidate power and prepare for the next phase in China’s adjustment. We concluded with the reasons for moving now and what it potentially signals about Xi’s… Read More »