Research & News
Daily Comment (February 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equities remain under pressure around the world. We are seeing lots of swings in other markets, with Treasuries flipping from higher to lower prices and the dollar is volatile as well. Here is what we are watching: Algos and risk parity: Innovation is always a factor… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump & Trade: The First Year (February 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady President Trump has been in office for just over one year, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He campaigned on a populist agenda—anti-globalism was a core message. Specifically, his “America First” mantra railed against free trade deals, suggesting they were poorly negotiated, supported immigration restrictions and called on allies to shoulder more… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s another down day for the broad swath of financial markets. We are seeing weakness in equities; bonds have started to stabilize but we are seeing a rapid steepening of the yield curve. Market action has been mostly controlled with little evidence of panic…so far. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The World Economic Forum in Davos was held recently and various comments were made about the dollar during the meetings. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seemed to imply that the administration was talking the dollar lower, a violation of unwritten protocols that make it acceptable to have a weaker currency in support of growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the initial read is that it’s a blowout. Payrolls rose sharply, better than forecast, and wage growth accelerated (although not for all workers). Financial markets are not taking it well; it’s another “red day” where… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The FOMC: The FOMC did what we expected; it held rates steady but prepared the market for new rate hikes. We currently expect three hikes this year but, given the overall hawkishness of the 2018 voters, we cannot rule out four hikes, especially if the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equities are back in the green this morning. The dollar is also in retreat. Here is what we are watching today: The FOMC: The last FOMC meeting chaired by Janet Yellen concludes today. We don’t expect a rate change or anything in the statement that will… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s another red day. Treasury prices have turned lower, equity futures are falling for the second straight day and oil is also lower. Gold and foreign currencies are higher. Here is what we are watching: A medical shakeup: Amazon (AMZN, 1417.68), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK, 323,500) and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part II (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we published the first part[1] of this report looking at how the U.S. and other nations are changing their policies toward nuclear weapons. This is something of a refresh of a report we did seven years ago.[2] Since we published this earlier report, we have seen an increase in actual and… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a “red day” as we are mostly seeing trend reversals across many markets—equity futures are pointing to a rare lower opening, Treasury yields have broken 2.70%, foreign exchange is weaker (dollar stronger) and gold is lower. Some of this looks like profit taking, although the… Read More »