Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Apple Problem (March 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On December 2, 2015, Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik, attacked a San Bernardino county facility, killing 14 people and seriously injuring 22 others.  The couple was subsequently killed by local law enforcement in a shootout several blocks from the facility.  The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) opened an investigation… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are trending higher leading into a busy week.  Here are a few highlights as most of the U.S. shifts to the dreaded Daylight Savings Time: Three central banks meet this week: The FOMC meets this week.  This meeting is one of the four that includes… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After yesterday’s wild ride, risk-on has returned this morning.  Equities and the dollar are higher, while Treasuries and gold are lower.  Yesterday, the ECB far exceeded expectations with its stimulus package.  All was going according to plan after the announcement—the dollar rose, equities were higher—and then… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 10, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] SUPER MARIO RETURNS!  ECB President Draghi, unlike in December, didn’t disappoint.  The central bank announced the following: (1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting once the operation is settled on 16… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 9, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a mostly quiet night in front of the ECB decision tomorrow.  Market expectations are optimistic that Draghi will come through with some sort of stimulus.  If the EUR fails to weaken after tomorrow’s meeting, it may signal that the ECB is mostly out of… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets are taking a breather today after an impressive rally.  Commodity prices have been rallying as well.  As noted below, China’s trade data came in a bit sloppy, with exports down 25.4% from last year.  However, all Chinese data is difficult to read in… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Iranian Elections (March 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On February 26, Iran held two elections, one for parliament and the other for the Council of Experts.  The former is Iran’s legislative body, and the latter is the part of government that monitors the Supreme Leader and selects his replacement if he dies, becomes incapacitated or is removed.  Since the 1979… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There are two issues we want to discuss this morning, China and monetary policy as it relates to Friday’s employment report. China: The National People’s Congress meetings began on Saturday and a clear signal is being sent—restructuring is being put on the back burner and the… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 4, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] BREAKING NEWS: Former Brazilian President Lula has been detained for questioning in an investigation of corruption. So far, he has not been arrested. Interestingly enough, it’s “risk on” with Brazilian assets, the BRL is advancing and Brazilian equities are rallying. This reaction may be due to… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 3, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] U.S. commercial crude oil inventories jumped 10.4 mb for the week ending 2/26, well above forecast.  Current stockpiles remain at 80+ year highs.  We are only 21 mb below the all-time high and there is a very good chance we will make a new high in… Read More »

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