Research & News
Daily Comment (June 9, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF On a slow news day, our short Comment today opens with early signs of relatively disappointing demand for World Cup tickets, which could mean the economic stimulus from the event will be less than expected. We next review several other international and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Excess Capacity and Policy Change (June 8, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A key challenge of the big-picture, top-down investment analysis that we do at Confluence is tracing the real-world impact of a country’s economic policy initiatives. Whether policymakers are trying to boost economic growth, bring down price inflation, or achieve another goal, our aim is to figure out if the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 8, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a few words on the apparent rebound in risk-asset markets so far today. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets, including an update on the war in Iran and further… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new research that helps confirm our belief that China’s growing comprehensive power — political, military, economic, and technological — is giving it much more geopolitical leverage. We next review several other international and US developments that could… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 4, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an assessment of recent business survey reports, including the ISM surveys and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. We then examine the rising political costs associated with the war in Iran. Next, we discuss European efforts to initiate peace… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 3, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with our views on the newly proposed trade tariffs. We then turn to the SpaceX IPO and its implications for AI‑related trades. Next, we briefly address the recent executive order on AI risks and the progress of the US‑EU… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 2, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of Big Tech’s escalating bet on AI and its implications for the broader economy. We then turn abroad to examine the latest developments in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Next, we provide updates on negotiations between the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the war in Iran, where a hoped-for peace deal is looking increasingly at risk. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including a warning from… Read More »