by Bill O’Grady
In 2013, we wrote a WGR that looked at Turkey’s likely rise to regional hegemon status. In that report, we made the case that Turkey was well positioned to return to its historic status as a dominant regional power. This remains our view over the next few decades. However, in the near term, the situation is much less clear.
Turkey has been trying to run a foreign policy of having “no problems” with its neighbors. This stance has become impossible to maintain. Unfortunately for its president, Recep Erdogan, Turkey is encircled by instability and is struggling to develop a response. In this report, we will examine Turkey’s geopolitical situation, the risks it faces as conditions deteriorate and how the Erdogan government has responded thus far. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.