Research & News
2017 Outlook (December 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Key Points: The economy will avoid a recession in 2017. GDP growth is expected to average 2.8% with core PCE inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. Fixed income markets will be challenging: We expect three rate hikes of 25 bps each by the FOMC; Due… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 16, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets are expensive by numerous measures and have become even more extended in the wake of the “Trump Rally.” As noted in our weekly P/E update (found in the last section of the Daily Comment), our four-quarter measure of the P/E is elevated. Another well-known derivation of the “Buffet Indicator” has… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2017 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (This will be the last WGR for 2016. The next report will be published on January 9, 2017.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 9, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The rapid rise in longer duration Treasury yields since the presidential election has been surprising. As of December 8, the 10-year T-note yield was approximately 2.40%. Although President-elect Trump’s policies will probably be inflationary, it is still unclear how much of his arguably vague plans will get passed. It is possible the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 2 (December 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (Next week, we will publish our 2017 Geopolitical Outlook; it will be the last issue of 2016.) In Part 1 of this report, we discussed the geography of the Philippines and examined the nation’s history, focusing on its relations with the U.S. In Part 2 of this report, we will discuss President Rodrigo… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 2, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the likely implications of President-elect Trump’s policies on the debt markets. This week, we will look at the impact on the dollar. Since the election, the dollar has generally moved higher. Using the Bloomberg dollar index, a broad-based currency measure, the dollar rose nearly 5% after the election. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 1 (November 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (There will be no report published over the Thanksgiving holiday. Part 2 of this report will be issued on December 5.) In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines, winning 39% of the vote. He is the first resident of the island of Mindanao to hold the office, making him a… Read More »